2011 College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Nebraska Upsets Michigan

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Nebraska at Michigan

Say all you want about the Michigan Wolverines. After Saturday's win over Illinois, one thing is for sure: this team doesn't need Denard Robinson to single-handedly win games for them anymore. In fact, the versatile quarterback missed most of the second half with a bruised wrist. When RB Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging 7.1 yards per carry against the Illini defense, all Brady Hoke needs to do is sit back and watch.

You know why?

As Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison put it, "that was without a doubt, a Michigan defense," when speaking of the team's effort against Illinois. The former defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens has taken a unit that ranked 108th in total defense—447.9 yards allowed per game—and 102nd in scoring defense—33.8 points allowed per game—in 2010 and turned it into one of the nation's best in less than 10 months. The Wolverines are 16th in total defense at 317.9 yards allowed per game and fifth in scoring defense—15.5 points allowed per game—10 games into the season.

A sound offense blended with an overachieving defense has catapulted Michigan back into the national conversation.

That rush defense will be tested by Nebraska's 13th-ranked rushing offense. Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead combined for 177 rushing yards on 46 carries with a touchdown against Penn State last weekend. The duo has racked up over 1,800 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in 10 games this season.

Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Nebraska at Michigan 101 times and it has the Cornhuskers winning 61.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-24.

USC at Oregon

Since they lost in their Week 1 opener against LSU, the Oregon Ducks have rattled off nine straight wins. They have outscored opponents 48.8-19.6 during that stretch. With their convincing win over Stanford last Saturday, the Ducks have re-entered the BCS National Championship picture.

All that stands in their way are the USC Trojans. With their 40-17 win over Washington, Lane Kiffin's crew has won five out of their last six games; the only loss coming to Stanford in triple-overtime back on October 29. As it stands now, the Trojans at 5-2 in the Pac-12 South sit a game up on Arizona State and UCLA for the right to play in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game on December 2.

Now if our simulation picks are accurate, the Bruins and Sun Devils are predicted to win (see predictions below) and after 101 simulations USC is predicted to lose to Oregon 67.3 percent of the time by an average score of 34-28. So, heading into Week 13, we could have a three-way tie for first in the Pac-12 South.

College Football Week 12
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Virginia Cavaliers	20.8	22	Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles	79.2	32
North Carolina Tar Heels	30.7	22	Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	69.3	27
Maryland Terrapins	43.6	24	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	56.4	26
Clemson Tigers	78.2	29	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	21.8	19
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	78.2	30	Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils	21.8	19
Cincinnati Bearcats	44.6	22	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	55.4	23
Louisville Cardinals	66.8	26	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	33.2	21
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	69.3	28	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	30.7	21
Indiana Hoosiers	5.0	18	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	95.0	40
Minnesota Golden Gophers	19.8	19	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	80.2	30
Penn State Nittany Lions	51.5	21	Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	48.5	20
Iowa Hawkeyes	55.0	25	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	45.0	22
Nebraska Cornhuskers	61.4	27	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	38.6	24
Wisconsin Badgers	80.7	33	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	19.3	18
Ball State Cardinals	13.9	22	Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	86.1	36
Army Black Knights	25.7	20	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	74.3	27
Akron Zips	29.2	17	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	70.8	24
Eastern Michigan Eagles	35.1	18	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	64.9	24
Western Michigan Broncos	56.4	30	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	43.6	26
Ohio Bobcats	69.8	28	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	30.2	22
Toledo Rockets	71.3	33	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	28.7	24
California Golden Bears	14.9	20	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	85.1	35
USC Trojans	32.7	28	Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks	67.3	34
Colorado Buffaloes	35.6	24	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	64.4	31
Arizona Wildcats	38.6	23	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	61.4	29
Utah Utes	54.5	26	Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars	45.5	25
Washington Huskies	70.3	30	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	29.7	23
Furman Paladins	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	95.0	54
Georgia Southern Eagles	5.0	5	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	95.0	61
Samford Bulldogs	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	95.0	51
Citadel Bulldogs	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	95.0	50
Kentucky Wildcats	7.9	14	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	92.1	32
Mississippi State Bulldogs	23.3	21	Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	76.7	31
Vanderbilt Commodores	34.7	20	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers	65.3	25
LSU Tigers	95.0	42	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	5.0	13
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	47.0	28	Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	53.0	30
Utah State Aggies	56.4	26	Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals	43.6	23
Fresno State Bulldogs	68.3	29	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	31.7	23
Navy Midshipmen	76.2	30	Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans	23.8	20
New Mexico State Aggies	9.9	18	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	90.1	37
Boston College Eagles	35.6	21	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	64.4	26
Kansas Jayhawks	12.9	21	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	87.1	38
Texas Tech Red Raiders	36.1	27	Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers	63.9	31
Kansas State Wildcats	52.5	25	Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns	47.5	24
Oklahoma Sooners	75.2	37	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	24.8	28
Oklahoma State Cowboys	95.0	42	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	5.0	19
Southern Methodist Mustangs	6.9	28	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	93.1	41
Tulane Green Wave	35.6	24	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	64.4	29
UCF Knights	69.3	30	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	30.7	25
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	84.2	39	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	15.8	23
Marshall Thundering Herd	86.1	28	Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers	13.9	14
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	88.1	37	Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners	11.9	22
Colorado State Rams	5.0	16	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	40
UNLV Rebels	10.9	15	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	89.1	31
New Mexico Lobos	16.8	16	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	83.2	29
Boise State Broncos	93.1	41	Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs	6.9	22
Florida Atlantic Owls	19.3	18	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	80.7	30
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	48.5	26	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	51.5	28
FIU Golden Panthers	50.5	25	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	49.5	24
Arkansas State Red Wolves	61.4	28	Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	38.6	24