Week 10 NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons and the Top Locks of the Week

The NFC South race is going to be one of the best in the NFL.

Sunday is going to really muddy the picture because the Atlanta Falcons are going to run wild at home against the New Orleans Saints.

Michael Turner is playing his best football of the season, as are the Falcons, having won three in a row. QB Matt Ryan is limiting his turnovers and is benefiting for the inspired running of Turner.

The Saints are playing extremely inconsistent football right now. Sometimes their defense decides to show up; sometimes it gives up 31 points to the previously winless Rams.

They have a below average run defense that is ranked 17^th in the NFL, allowing 120 yards a game. Expect the Falcons to control the tempo and clock while keeping the explosive Saints offense off the field.

Key Trends:

Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.

Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC South.

Prediction: Falcons 33 Saints 28

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

The Bears have quietly pieced together a 5-3 record, including a three-game winning streak, where they’ve won consecutive road bouts.

Jay Cutler is getting more protection, isn’t making seven-step drops anymore, and the results have been very impressive.

With Matt Forte playing like a man who wants to get paid, expect the Bears to gash the porous Lions defense, ranked 29^th in the NFL against the rush, to a bloody pulp. With RB Jahvid Best likely to miss yet another game, the one-dimensional Detroit offense will get smothered by a rock solid and extremely disciplined Bears defense. 

Key Trends:

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.

Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.

Lions are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games in November.

Prediction: Bears 24 Lions 21

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The Ravens showed the world they are Super Bowl contenders with their incredible come-from-behind victory over the Steelers. Now they must prove they can get fired up against bad teams.

When Tarvaris Jackson is involved…I like their chances.

The Baltimore defense is far too suffocating to let a bad Seattle team hang around. The veteran Ravens won’t be affected by the home crowd, as Joe Flacco will continue to regain his “Joe Cool” nickname.

Key Trends:

Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Prediction: Ravens 27 Seahawks 13