Texas A&M Football: Bowl Projections for the Aggies

The Texas A&M football team is 5-4 overall and 3-3 in conference play.

The Aggies have three games left in the season and need one more win to be bowl eligible. How the Ags do against Kansas State, Kansas and Texas will determine their destination for the holidays.

With the loss to Oklahoma, the Ags eliminated all possibility of winning the conference title.

With three games left, there still are a variety of post season options for the Aggies. This is a look at the bowls that the Ags will qualify for given different scenarios.

Cotton Bowl

The highest the Aggies can finish in the conference is a tie for first.

If the Aggies go 3-0 in their remaining games, Oklahoma loses two more games and Oklahoma State loses their last three games, there would be a three way tie for first in the conference. 

Oklahoma would advance to the Fiesta Bowl based on their win over Oklahoma State.

The Cotton Bowl would get second choice from the conference and would have to choose between at 9-3 OSU team or an 8-4 A&M team.

The Cotton Bowl would most likely go with Oklahoma State because the Cowboys have a better record, won head-to-head with A&M and the Aggies played in the Cotton Bowl in 2011.

On the other hand, it is possible that the Cotton Bowl committee could be turned off by an OSU team coming off three straight losses and could pick the Aggies. The game would be a preview of the SEC next year.

Whoever goes to the Cotton Bowl would play an SEC team. Right now it looks like that team will be Georgia.

Another scenario where the Ags could slip into the Cotton Bowl would involve OU beating OSU and both OU and OSU getting tapped for BCS bowls.

I would only give these scenarios a 5 percent chance of happening, but in theory A&M could play Georgia in the Cotton Bowl.

Alamo Bowl

The Alamo Bowl gets the third choice of teams for the Big 12 after the BCS and the Cotton Bowl.

A&M would have to finish their season 3-0 to make the Alamo Bowl.

Oklahoma State or Oklahoma will go to the Fiesta Bowl. The loser of the Bedlam game will go to the Cotton Bowl. A&M would finish third in the conference and would fall to the Alamo Bowl.

The Alamo Bowl has switched conference affiliations from the B1G to the Pac-12. if the Aggies go to the Alamo Bowl they will face the second place team from the Pac-12.

That means that the Aggies would likely face Arizona State in the Alamo Bowl.

The Pac-12 race is far from over so a variety of teams could face A&M in San Antonio.

I think this is the most likely scenario for the Aggies. I would say there is about a 60 percent chance Aggies finish the year 3-0 and meet a Pac-12 opponent in San Antonio.

Insight Bowl

The Insight Bowl gets the No. 4 pick from the Big 12.

This is where many are projecting the Aggies to end up right now. If the Aggies finish the season 2-1 with a loss to KSU or Texas, then they would likely drop into the fourth position in the pecking order.

The Insight Bowl would pit the Ags against the fourth or fifth choice team from the B1G.

Right now that team is projected to be Ohio State. You could see A&M play Ohio State, Nebraska or Wisconsin in this bowl.

I give the Ags about a 20 percent chance of ending up in this bowl.

Holiday Bowl

If the Aggies finish the season 1-2 with a win over Kansas and losses to KSU and Texas, then they would end up in the Holiday Bowl. The Holiday Bowl gets the fifth pick from the Big 12.

The irony here is that the Holiday Bowl is in one of the most desirable destinations to visit over the holidays. San Diego is a great place to visit any time of the year but is especially nice in December when most of the country is dealing with cold weather.

The Aggies would qualify for this bowl if they finish the season 6-6.

The Ags would face the third place team from the Pac-12. Right now the projection for that team is Washington.

The Ags could face Washington, Arizona State or Oregon in this bowl.

This scenario is about as likely to happen as the Cotton Bowl. I do not think the Holiday Bowl wants to invite a 6-6 team.

Meineke Car Care Bowl

The Meineke Car Care Bowl in Houston pits the No. 6 pick from the Big 12 against the No. 6 pick from the B1G.

The Ags would have to finish the season 1-2 to end up in this game. I am sure the bowl hosts in Houston would be ecstatic to see the Aggies in this game. It would ensure a big crowd.

Right now Nebraska is projected to play in this bowl. The Ags could face NU, Ohio State, Wisconsin or Michigan in this bowl.

In order for the Aggies to fall this far down, you would have to see Texas finish out the year strong and be pick ahead of A&M by the Holiday Bowl. If the Aggies go 1-2 through their last three games, then this is likely to happen.

If the Aggies finish 6-6, then I see this bowl scenario as likely because of the Ags proximity to Houston. You could end up with a rematch of the 1995 Alamo Bowl in which A&M beat Michigan.

Pinstripe Bowl

The Aggies would have to finish 1-2 to go 6-6 and fall to the Pinstripe Bowl which is played in Yankee Stadium in New York.

This bowl matches up the No. 4 team in the Big East against the No. 7 team from the Big 12.

Right now that means that if the Ags go to New York, they would face Rutgers.

If the Aggies finish 6-6, I do not see them falling below the bowl game in Houston. That is disappointing because a trip to New York for the team and fans would be a whole lot more exciting than a trip to Houston.

There is a 1 percent chance of the Ags ending up in this bowl.

No Bowl

If the Aggies do not win another game this season, then they will not qualify for a bowl game.

This would be a collapse of epic proportions and would likely result in a coaching change.

In order to not qualify for a bowl game, the Ags would need to lose a home game against Kansas. The Jayhawks have already given up on the season, and the KU fans are counting down the minutes until basketball starts.

There is no scenario where I see the Ags losing to Kansas at home.

There is a zero percent chance of this happening.