NFL Picks Week 10: Buccaneers and Other Feisty Home Dogs Ready to Surprise

Who are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Is this the team that beat the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints, or the one that lost to the San Francisco 49ers by 45 points last month and dropped three out of four games?

I think they are somewhere in between, but they are clearly a much better home team. They are 1-2 on the road and 3-1 at home (the London loss doesn’t count). This makes a lot of sense, considering the Bucs are the youngest team in the NFL.

That’s why you should strongly consider this.

Tampa Bay plus-3 vs. Houston Texans

This is a classic case of Vegas overacting to one team playing well and another team that is struggling.

Bucs QB Josh Freeman is under attack this season for his decision-making skills, having thrown eight TDs to 10 INTs. It’s odd considering he was so cautious with the ball in 2010.

That being said, he'll turn this slump around against a Texans defense that has been strong against bad teams, but that struggles against the good ones. Houston has given up 89 points in their three losses.

I expect Freeman to remember that he has WR Mike Williams on his roster this week, and for the Bucs passing offense to come alive. RB LeGarrette Blount is finally healthy again to balance out an offense that has been without a running game in recent weeks.

Key Trends

Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Texans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.

Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 26 Houston 21

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals plus-3

Who would have guessed this would be a huge game in the AFC North when the schedule came out? The Bengals can hand the Steelers an 0-3 divisional record with a loss, and there’s no reason to think this team can’t do it.

QB Andy Dalton is going to struggle early against Hall of Fame defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, but the beauty of the rookie is the adjustments he makes midgame. The “red rifle” doesn’t get rattled and is at his best in the second half.

The Bengals have outscored opponents by 126-59 in the second half, and 87-43 in the fourth quarter.

That’s not a fluke—it’s a trend.

The Steelers have multiple injuries at linebacker and may be without Bengals-killer Hines Ward.

It’s not going to be pretty, but I think the Bengals will wear down a thin Pittsburgh defense in the second half and Dalton will make the last play…just like Joe Flacco last Sunday.

Key Trends

Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an S.U. win.

Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.

Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

Prediction: Bengals 20 Steelers 17

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)