2011 Breeders' Cup Odds: Favored Europeans Will Overwhelm Breeders' Cup Turf

There is a very heavy European influence at the 2011 Breeders' Cup. In no race is that more prevalent than the Breeders' Cup Turf. 

Sarafina (5/2), Await the Dawn (7/2), Midday (4/1), Sea Moon (4/1) and St Nicholas Abbey (9/2) represent the Top 5 favorites in the race (all numbers according to Bodog). All come from across the pond. 

Sarafina deserves to be the favorite. She's won three races at this distance in the last year. Granted, her one loss was a rather dismal seventh-place performance, but when you consider the rest of her resume, you shouldn't read too much into that loss. 

From a betting perspective, Await the Dawn is not worth the risk. He's encountered recent health scares, and while the horse is healthy, I wouldn't plan on him doing much against this kind of field.

Keep an eye on that number as the day progresses. If it slips a little bit more and gets closer to the 10/1 range, he may be a better play. Given that the post is 4:45 p.m. EDT, that's unlikely, but worth monitoring. But barring that, don't take the risk.

I like St Nicholas Abbey to place in this race. His recent past reminds me a little bit of Uncle Mo. The talent is there, but he had some health issues that really limited his productivity. Actually, it's kept him off of the track—but he's been very strong since his return.

I don't know that that puts him ahead of Sarafina, but I do expect a strong performance. 

The race to show will come down to Midday and Sea Moon. Given Midday's history at the Breeders' Cup (which includes a win), I will go with her over Sea Moon. This will be a close race.

Also in that race will be American Dean's Kitten. At 10/1, he's far from a long shot. I am not predicting a win and I don't think he'll finish in the money, but I could see him spoiling some of the European dominance. 

None of the Europeans have odds that would provide a particularly strong payoff. Still, I wouldn't go against them. Odds or not, they have the best horses.

Prediction
Win	Sarafina
Place	St. Nicholas Abbey
Show	Midday