NFL Picks Week 9: Why Falcons Soar Past Spread vs. Colts

The Atlanta Falcons are in a marvelous spot to win on Sunday.

They are coming off a bye, allowing Matt Ryan a chance to rest his hobbled ankle. Julio Jones was given enough rest to finally return after missing two games, and the defense is going to be as healthy as it's been since Week 1.

That’s why it’s puzzling to see the spread against the Indianapolis Colts at seven, down from 8.5 when the line was first released. Despite being at home, the Colts are awful. They are one of only a handful of teams that have yet to have a bye week, and the defensive unit is really beginning to wear down.

After their defense was able to keep games interesting early in the season, the team is beginning to get blown out on a regular basis. They have lost their past three games by 10, 54 and 17. The Colts get gashed by the run to the tune of 144 yards a game (31st in the NFL), and it’s hard to envision a scenario where RB Michael Turner doesn’t completely dominate.

Remember: we just need a touchdown and extra point here.

The Falcons defense is seventh against the rush and shouldn’t have any issues containing the likes of Delone Carter and Donald Brown. Who knows what’s up with Joseph Addai at this point.

Forcing the Colts into multiple 3rd-and-longs will allow John Abrams and the rest of the front four to dial up the pressure on QB Curtis Painter—never a good thing for the Colts. Expect at least two turnovers from the overmatched QB in this one as he tries to force the ball into coverage.

Considering the dome-field advantage doesn’t hurt the Falcons as much since they reside in the Georgia Dome, the spread makes absolutely no sense. This is going to be a blowout by halftime.

Sure the Colts have dominated this series in the past, but that was with a healthy No. 18.

Key Trends:

Falcons are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

Prediction: Falcons 27, Colts 14

(Spread courtesy of Covers.com)