NFL Picks Week 9: Baltimore Ravens Need More from Joe Flacco

The jam-packed AFC North, featuring three teams with just two losses, is home for this week’s biggest matchup.

The Baltimore Ravens, whose offense awakened from a six-quarter slumber in the second half at home last week to come from behind against the Arizona Cardinals, head to Pittsburgh for their return engagement with the Steelers.

Pittsburgh exorcised some recent demons by dominating the New England Patriots last week, beating Tom Brady for just the second time in eight career meetings. More redemption is on the mind of the Steelers this week as they look to reverse the 35-7 crushing the Ravens administered on opening day.

The Steelers were awful the first time around, turning the ball over seven times. Joe Flacco and the Baltimore passing game performed well enough for many analysts to begin to write the Steelers’ obituary.

But Pittsburgh has now won five in a row and Flacco has gone from emerging as a new member of the elite class of quarterbacks to playing like an Average Joe. Since his three touchdown, no turnover performance against the Steelers, Flacco has been picked off six times and thrown just five touchdown passes. Flacco’s completion percentage of 53.8 and quarterback rating of 75.4 rank near the bottom of the league.

This would be a good week for offensive coordinator Cam Cameron of the Ravens to remember he has one of the premier double-threat backs in the league in Ray Rice and try to utilize Rice in the running game and in the short passing game. If there are shots to be taken down the field to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, by all means Baltimore should take them—but Flacco needs to be efficient, not heroic.

On to the picks, with home teams in CAPS:

DALLAS (-12) over Seattle: The Seahawks are coming off a 22-point loss at home to the Bengals. The Cowboys were humiliated in prime time and will be looking to make someone pay for it. Seattle seems like a likely candidate.

KANSAS CITY (-5) over Miami: The Chiefs got an emotional win Monday night when Philip Rivers forgot how to take a snap. Against a Dolphin team that seems to be at the “just-good-enough-to-lose” stage, Kansas City probably won’t need that much help.

NEW ORLEANS (-9) over Tampa Bay: AFL lore had its “Heidi” game. The NFC South in 2011 has another movie-inspired contest. Welcome to the “Sybil” game, with the two most wildly inconsistent teams in the NFL butting heads again. The Buccaneers beat the Saints in Tampa a week after absorbing a 45-point defeat at San Francisco. So it makes perfect sense that the Saints will blow out the Bucs after losing at winless St. Louis, right?

HOUSTON (-11) over Cleveland: The Browns’ offense is rolling up huge numbers this year—were you to measure in feet instead of yards. While I’m not sure a 10-point win over a punchless Jacksonville team means all is well with the Cowheads, they’ve got more than enough to handle Cleveland.

WASHINGTON (+4) over San Francisco: Outside of the Tampa Bay game, the 49ers seem pathologically opposed to getting and holding a large lead. It makes no sense, but I like the Redskins to keep this one within a field goal.

New York Jets (+2) over BUFFALO: The Bills face a rested Jets team and Rex Ryan has been hearing all week how bad his teams have been coming off a bye. That doesn’t bode well for Buffalo.

Atlanta (-8) over INDIANAPOLIS: Statistics say the Colts will win at least one game in 2011. It’s not happening this week.

OAKLAND (-9) over Denver: Carson Palmer has had two weeks to digest the playbook and the Raiders signed his old possession receiver/security blanket from his Bengals days in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Broncos have been sentenced to at least one more week of Tim Tebow.

Cincinnati (+3) over TENNESSEE: Has Las Vegas been watching the same two teams I’ve been seeing? I can’t think of any reason why the Titans should be favored here.

Green Bay (-6) over SAN DIEGO: The NFL scheduling people weren’t thinking here—a team that hasn’t played in 14 days against a team coming off a short week? Throw in the devastating nature of the Chargers’ loss at Kansas City and this one could get ugly fast.

ARIZONA (-3) over St. Louis: Quarterback John Skelton will start for the Cardinals in place of the injured Kevin Kolb. That’s enough right there for me to like Arizona.

New York Giants (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: I’m not sold on the idea of the Giants actually breaking the Patriots’ lengthy winning streak in Foxborough. But I’m equally not sold on the notion New England wins by more than a touchdown.

Baltimore (+4) over PITTSBURGH: This spread is exactly one point too large for me to like the favorite. The Steelers get their split with the Ravens, but it’s only by a field goal.

PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Chicago: This has a lot more to do with the Bears’ defense than anything else. Chicago has been Charmin soft over the middle.

Last week: 8-4-1
Season: 62-47-7