LSU vs. Alabama Football: Why Total Points Spread Is Incredibly Too Low

What the heck is Vegas thinking?

The current over/under point line in the college game of the year between No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama is currently at 41.5.

Take the over.           

Much has been made about the Alabama defense this season—considering the Crimson Tide are No. 1 in the nation, allowing under a touchdown a game…you can understand why.

Nick Saban-coached teams are treated more like an industrial factory than 11 human beings. Everyone has to play a specific part to ensure the entire operation runs smoothly. Clearly his system works.

I tend to focus on their offense, you know the unit that is 12th in the nation, averaging over 39 points per game. Running back Trent Richardson is going to be a Heisman Trophy finalist, and he has racked up 989 yards and 17 touchdowns for 6.6 yards per carry. He is incredibly strong and can push around any defense. It’s hard to imagine even LSU being able to contain him.

Quarterback A.J. McCarron has thrown for 1664 yards and 11 TDs to only three interceptions. He is smart with the ball and extremely accurate, completing 67 percent of his passes. His efficiency, coupled with Richardson, makes this team incredibly scary offensively.

Even if the Tigers defense plays well, it’s hard to imagine a scenario under which the Crimson Tide doesn’t put up at least three touchdowns. They have yet to score fewer than 34 points in a game this season.

Speaking of the Tigers defense, they only allow 11.5 points a game—third in the nation. They have 11 interceptions on the year—14 best in the nation. They have a ton of speed and will be getting back the three suspended players that got busted for smoking synthetic marijuana. This opportunistic defense, led by cornerback Tyrann Mathieu, is more than capable of scoring a touchdown.

The offense is no slouch, either. The two-headed QB attack of Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson has been aces, as both players really confuse a defense. This unorthodox style can confuse even the ‘Bama defense.

Last notes: Last year’s game registered 45 total points. Four of the last five matchups have gone over the 41-point barrier.

Key trends...

Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last five vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Prediction: Alabama 27, LSU 17

(Point total courtesy of Covers.com)