2011 College Football Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Alabama over LSU

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: LSU at Alabama

I actually covered a "Game of the Century" back on November 18, 2006. The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes hosted their enemy from up north, Michigan. The Wolverines, ranked second heading into the final week of the regular season, played the game a day after the death of iconic head coach Bo Schembechler.

The tension prior to kickoff was thick. The energy during the game was palpable. The celebration on the field after the game was euphoric for those sporting scarlet and grey attire.

I expect the same setting down in Tuscaloosa inside Bryant-Denny Stadium when No. 2 Alabama hosts No. 1 LSU Saturday night. Both teams enter Week 10 coming off a bye. The rest and relaxation must have been a welcomed treat as five days of constant media attention and 60 minutes of hell await them this week.

When it comes to statistically analyzing the matchup, offense takes a backseat to defense. The Crimson Tide possess the top scoring defense in the nation at 6.9 points allowed per game, while the Tigers are third at 11.5 papg. Now if history tells us anything, the final score of this game should be in the 20s or 30s.

Alabama is also first in the nation in total yards allowed per game at 180.5. The Tigers allow 251.4 yards per game. Alabama is first in rush defense, 44.9 yapg. and second in passing defense, 135.6 yapg. The Tigers are third in rush defense, 76.6 yapg, and 10th in pass defense 174.8 yapg, but have picked off more passes, 11, than the Tide (nine).

On offense, Alabama's Trent Richardson is a dark horse to win the Heisman Trophy. He's closing in on 1,000 rushing yards, is averaging 6.6 yards per rush and has scored 18 touchdowns (one receiving) on the season. LSU's Jarrett Lee has led an efficient offensive attack in place of Jordan Jefferson. He's thrown for over 1,200 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one interception.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated the Tide and Tigers 101 times and it's Alabama winning 61.4 percent of the time by an average score of 25-23.

College Football Week 10
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Duke Blue Devils	20.8	24	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	79.2	33
Virginia Cavaliers	57.4	25	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	42.6	23
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	64.4	30	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	35.6	24
North Carolina Tar Heels	68.3	26	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	31.7	22
Florida State Seminoles	76.7	30	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	23.3	20
Louisville Cardinals	30.7	20	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	69.3	29
Cincinnati Bearcats	49.5	26	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	50.5	27
Syracuse Orange	54.0	24	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	46.0	22
South Florida Bulls	66.3	25	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	33.7	21
Minnesota Golden Gophers	5.0	11	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	95.0	38
Indiana Hoosiers	8.9	17	Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	91.1	35
Purdue Boilermakers	8.9	18	Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers	91.1	37
Northwestern Wildcats	29.7	16	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	70.3	27
Michigan Wolverines	47.5	27	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	52.5	28
Akron Zips	15.8	17	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	84.2	28
Northern Illinois Huskies	48.5	31	Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets	51.5	32
Temple Owls	60.4	25	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	39.6	22
Ball State Cardinals	60.4	25	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	39.6	22
Central Michigan Chippewas	60.4	23	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	39.6	21
Washington State Cougars	35.6	22	Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears	64.4	29
Utah Utes	40.6	24	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	59.4	27
Arizona State Sun Devils	76.7	31	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	23.3	21
Oregon Ducks	82.2	35	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	17.8	23
Stanford Cardinal	90.1	38	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	9.9	22
USC Trojans	92.1	36	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	7.9	20
New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	10	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	95.0	43
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	95.0	53
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	18.8	16	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers	81.2	29
Vanderbilt Commodores	22.8	17	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	77.2	26
South Carolina Gamecocks	34.7	24	Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	65.3	31
LSU Tigers	38.6	23	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	61.4	25
Mississippi Rebels	44.6	23	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	55.4	24
Utah State Aggies	25.7	25	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	74.3	34
Idaho Vandals	39.6	23	Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans	60.4	26
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	48.5	30	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	51.5	31
Troy Trojans	34.7	22	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	65.3	29
Kansas State Wildcats	14.9	26	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	85.1	39
Texas A&M Aggies	27.7	29	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	72.3	36
Kansas Jayhawks	33.7	23	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	66.3	30
Texas Tech Red Raiders	37.6	26	Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns	62.4	30
Missouri Tigers	61.4	31	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	38.6	27
Tulane Green Wave	36.6	25	Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	63.4	32
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	39.6	33	Boxscore
@ UCF Knights	60.4	35
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	53.5	33	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	46.5	32
UTEP Miners	56.4	27	Boxscore
@ Rice Owls	43.6	26
Houston Cougars	91.1	44	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	8.9	26
New Mexico Lobos	5.0	12	Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs	95.0	39
Army Black Knights	32.2	19	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	67.8	25
Boise State Broncos	95.0	52	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	5.0	11
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	39	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	5.0	15
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	39.1	24	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	60.9	27
FIU Golden Panthers	65.3	30	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	34.7	24
Arkansas State Red Wolves	83.2	32	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	16.8	18