Boise State:Whether It's Right or Wrong, Why They Will Be Left out of Title Game

In seasons past, the door to the BCS title game for mid-major schools has been boarded up, padlocked and decorated with a big sign that reads, "KEEP OUT."

In 2011 the Boise State Broncos could be the latest school to fall victim to such behavior.

Actually, it has happened to Boise State a few times.  Although, in the past they were the new kids on the block and the disrespect they received was kind of an initiation process.

In 2006 the Broncos garnered national attention by going undefeated and earning a Fiesta Bowl bid against the Big 12's Oklahoma Sooners.  The guys in blue shocked the nation with a thrilling 43-42 come from behind victory.

Boise has gone 45-3 since that 2006 season (bowl games excluded), counting their 2011 record, including a 14-0 season in 2009.

Boise State is currently ranked fourth in the BCS, with LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma State ahead of them, in that order.

If No. 3 Oklahoma State can run the table, things will be fairly clear with the Cowboys jumping to No.2 and playing either LSU or Alabama for the national championship.

"If" is the key word. The Cowboys still have to play No.8 Kansas State, No.20 Texas Tech and No. 9 Oklahoma.

LSU or Alabama are guaranteed to have at least one loss—their November 5 matchup will make sure of that.  The winner of that game will hold the No.1 spot in the BCS.  If the winner of that game and Oklahoma State hold serve, the Broncos have no shot.

That's one way they will be left out.  Here are few more scenarios that could bite the Broncos.

Keep in mind that I am assuming the Broncos will end the season undefeated.

There is enough season left for almost anything to go haywire in the BCS, these are just a couple of ways I can see things going down.

All of the scenarios that I mention are not too far-fetched and if one of them plays out, I don't think that it would be unfair, just unfortunate.  For Boise State that is.

Big 12 Mess

Let's say the Cowboys don't win-out and Oklahoma knocks them off on December 3. 

If this happens and the Sooners don't lose before that game, they will get a lot of BCS love due to the fact that they will have possibly knocked off three Top 20 teams in, now No.8 Kansas State, No.16 Texas A&M and No. 3 Oklahoma State.

Don't forget about the Big 12 Championship, which could muddy the waters even more.

One-Loss Teams in the Mix

If Oklahoma finishes with one loss then things could get wild.  We've seen it before. 

With only one undefeated team in the Top 2 and Boise being a possible No. 2, all of the BCS one-loss teams will be trying to shove Boise out of the way and squeeze their way in.

Remember 2008 when 12-1 Florida faced 12-1 Oklahoma for the national championship?  No. 6 Utah at 12-0 and No. 6 Boise State at 12-0 were left out in the cold that season.

Also, don't count out the loser of the LSU vs. Alabama game when it comes to one-loss teams that could be in the fold.

Pac-12 Will Be Lurking

The Pac-12 could find their way into the title talk as well.  If Boise State is unbeaten and only LSU or Alabama are ahead of them, the BCS likely won't stand for it and a team like No. 6 Stanford or No.7 Oregon will get huge consideration.

Of course, this will depend on the outcome of their matchup on November 12.  The winner of that game will get a lot of attention and the "strength of schedule" thing will fall in favor of the BCS school.

Clemson

Don't count out the Clemson Tigers as a team that could leapfrog Boise State. 

They still have to play No. 13 South Carolina.  With that win under their belt and a zero on the right side of their record, they could get a lot of play.

Strength of Schedule Reigns Supreme

Going undefeated will only get a team so far.

Is it fair?  Not really, it's not like undefeated teams are a dime a dozen.  From 2001 to the present, five is the highest number of undefeated teams (2004 and 2009) out of the entire FBS prior to the title game.  By the way, Boise State was one of those five teams both years.

In 2006 and 2008 there were only two undefeated teams in each of those seasons and guess who was one of them?  You guessed it. Boise State, both seasons.

Something has got to give here.  At some point the BCS needs to look the other way and give these guys a shot.