Week 7 NFL Picks: New-Look Minnesota Vikings Will Give Green Bay Packers a Scare

Stop gushing over the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, they are the last undefeated team in the NFL. Yes, they have the best offense, and yes, they won the last Super Bowl.

Have you seen their defense?

The dirty little secret about the Pack is that they currently sport the 31st-ranked pass defense, giving up over 300 yards via the air every week. They are susceptible to the 15-yard slant because of their tissue-soft coverage over the middle.

That’s why you should take: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9).

(Spread courtesy of Covers.com.)           

First of all, you throw out the record books when these two teams play. The Vikings have won three of the last five meetings, and will benefiting from the strong Metrodome crowd and the faint hope they can save the season.

This team is desperate. 

The big reason the spread is so large is the fact rookie QB Christian Ponder is making his first start.

The good news for Ponder is that there are only a handful of clips of his play on tape. He went 9-of-17 for 99 yards in his debut, and showed the ability to take what the defense gives him—something you can’t say about a lot of rookie QBs in their first appearance.

Expect a conservative game plan with a lot of Adrian Peterson—which is never a bad thing. 

With the Packers struggling to move the ball with James Stark (299 yards, one TD) and Ryan Grant (200 yards, zero TDs), that will play into the hands of Jared Allen and company on the Vikings front four. Minnesota allows 83.5 yards a game, which is good enough for fifth in the NFL.

The Vikings will keep the putrid Packers running game in check, and can get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. While that doesn’t guarantee success, it can eliminate the deep ball that is so important in the Green Bay offense.

While Rodgers can still wiggle loose long enough to throw a couple of long bombs to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, I think the Vikings hang around long enough into the fourth quarter to keep this game within the large point spread.

Jump on the Ponder bandwagon now before it gets too crowded.

Prediction: Packers 31, Vikings 24