NFL Picks Week 7: Why Steelers Won't Cover the Spread Against Rested Cardinals

Vegas has you right where they want you.

You take a quick glance at the Pittsburgh Steelers heading west to take on the Arizona Cardinals, and see that the spread is only 3.5 in favor of Pittsburgh.

But for a variety of factors, I believe the Arizona Cardinals will keep this game within the 3.5 point margin—and win outright.

The Steelers enter the game with a 4-2 record, yet are only 1-2 away from the friendly confines of Heinz Field. The one win was a nail-bitter against the 0-6 Colts. Ben Roethlisberger has committed nine turnovers in three road games, mostly because of his patchwork offensive line.

Due to multiple injuries, the line is full of inexperience and old age, which means they are affected by the crowd. The fear of a false start has allowed opponents to get to Big Ben quicker than at home.

The Cardinals are going to get burned by a deep ball to Mike Wallace at some point, but I think they can get enough pressure on a hobbled Roethlisberger to keep the Steelers offense in check.

On defense, the Steelers are still without Jerome Harrison and Aaron Smith—two key cogs to stopping the run. Beanie Wells is enjoying a breakout season that should continue this week, especially with a week for him to rest his hamstring injury.

Kevin Kolb isn’t great, but the difference between 2-4 and 1-5 in the NFL is gigantic, and a desperate QB trying to win over his fanbase is a scary thing to face. I envision lots of balls thrown in Larry Fitzgerald’s direction, who destroyed Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl.

The big factor to consider is that former Pittsburgh assistants Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm have had two weeks to prepare for their former team. Overall, there are six former Pittsburgh coaches who are now on the Arizona sidelines

With the painful loss of Super Bowl XLIII still fresh in the minds of the coaching staff and many of the players, a desperate Cardinals team finds a way to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Steelers 23

Key Trends:

Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.

Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.

Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.

(Spread courtesy of Covers.com)