NFL Picks Week 7: Why Falcons Run Game Will Demolish Lions

The Atlanta Falcons are one of the hardest teams in the NFL to figure out. They have swapped wins and losses in all six games this season, looking great one week and looking like a pretender the next.

The Detroit Lions are 5-1, but very flawed. There are core issues with the secondary that aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. An even bigger problem is their run defense, which is ranked 26^th in the league and allowing 129.5 yards per game.

That’s why you need to take the following spread:

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 @ Detroit Lions

(Spread courtesy of Covers.com)

The Lions have a great pass rush that can strike fear into any opposing QB, but their aggressiveness leaves them vulnerable to a power runner that can bust through the first wave of defense.

Enter Michael Turner.

The “burner” finally had his breakout game of the 2011 season and, what a surprise, the Falcons won comfortably last week against Carolina.

Expect the Falcons running game to be the driving force in their offense, as they wear down a Lions' defense that doesn’t have much depth.

On the flip side, the Lions' running game is in shambles. Jahvid Best, who has racked up 390 yards and two touchdowns, will be out on Sunday with a concussion. With the Ronnie Brown trade voided because of a Jerome Harrison tumor, the only backs left are Keiland Williams, who is currently averaging 2.6 yards per carry and Maurice Morris.

With a one-dimensional offense, the Falcons are going to bring the heat on Matthew Stafford and force him into some poor decisions. The Detroit offensive line is quietly struggling, and that’s really going to kill the opportunity to get the ball to Calvin Johnson down the field.

The Lions home-dome advantage isn’t as big against a Falcons' team that plays in one as well. I expect Matt Ryan to make enough plays down the stretch to hand the Lions their second consecutive home loss.

Prediction: Falcons 27 Lions 24