College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 8: Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

Wisconsin is in for its first real road test this weekend when they travel to East Lansing to take on Michigan State.

The Spartans are fresh off an upset win over then No. 11 Michigan at home. College GameDay will be on hand for this game and it will be the fourth time in history they have come to watch MSU. This is the second time they will watch the Badgers this season.

The first thing you have to talk about when talking about Wisconsin is their offense. They repeatedly run the football down opponents’ throats until they get too tired to defend against it.

But, Russell Wilson has added another dimension to their offense. Not only is he the most efficient passer in the country right now, but he can take off at any time and burn a defense with his legs.

Michigan State dealt with a running quarterback last week in Denard Robinson, but he really could not throw the football accurately. The Spartans also have not faced a rushing attack like Montee Ball and James White.

That said, Wisconsin has not faced a very tough schedule or a defense like Michigan State; the best defense they played ranks 63rd out of 120 teams against the rush.

So far against a moderately strong strength of schedule, the Spartans are giving up 67 yards per game on the ground which ranks third in the country.

In games like this, a quarterback with great poise is very beneficial. Wilson is that guy but only to an extent. While at N.C. State, he made clutch mistakes against big time opponents like Virginia Tech, where in two games he threw four interceptions.

That is a very big problem considering that Michigan State’s pass defense is the best in the country.

Something in this game has to give and in games like that, home field advantage becomes critically important. With the Spartans getting pumped up by their crowd, expect this game to be closely fought and come down to a single possession.

But, while everyone is talking about the Wisconsin offense vs. Michigan State’s defense, the converse must also be discussed.

The Spartans are very, very talented on offense but have not been able to turn it into points, averaging 28 points per game which is 65th in the country. The Badgers are giving up less than 10 points per game so the advantage in that has to go to them.

Additionally, Wisconsin has a phenomenal punting game which averages a net of over 40 yards as compared to Michigan State’s 34 yards.

With these hidden yards and a tough Badger defense, expect Wisconsin to come out on top but not by much. Vegas has them as an eight-point favorite so I would take Michigan State to cover.

Wisconsin – 27

Michigan State - 20