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NFL Picks Week 7: Why Buccaneers and Tim Tebow's Broncos Are Worth Betting on

Eric BallOct 18, 2011

The oddsmakers in Vegas are still in early-week line mode which means now is the time to jump on the right lines.

Once the sharks and public number start pouring in, things are sure to change. For now, strongly consider these two bets:

(Spreads via Covers.com)

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Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The Buccaneers are the home team, yet it really doesn’t matter considering the game will be played at Wembley Stadium in London, England.

The Bucs are a hard team to figure out at this point, but they do something well that will doom the Bears: pressure the QB.

Jay Cutler had an incredible game against the Vikings last Sunday because of the lack of pressure. With the Bucs' stout front four, that will change this week against a horrendous O-line.

QB Josh Freeman continues to improve under center and it looks like WR Mike Williams is finally waking up after an early-season slump. Freeman can move the ball against a slow Bears defense that struggles containing a mobile quarterback.

When factoring in that the Bears are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games, and the Bucs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as an underdog…pick the Bucs.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Bears 20

Denver Broncos +1 @ Miami Dolphins

The Broncos have entered the Tim Tebow era and will essentially be playing a home game at Miami, with hometown hero Tebow making his return to the Sunshine State.

The stadium is honoring the ’09 Florida Gators BCS championship and the amount of Tebow fans at the game is going to be ridiculous.

The Broncos are coming off a bye week and the Dolphins are coming of a Monday nighter. The Denver defense has been banged up all season, and enters Sunday as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.

The ‘Fins are winless and going nowhere, coach Tony Sparano is in grave danger of getting fired, and Matt Moore is their starting QB.

Tebow isn’t the greatest pocket-passer, but he can lead an offense and get his troops fired up and playing hard.

Prediction: Broncos 26, Dolphins 23

Key Trends:

Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.

Dolphins are 6-29 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite.

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