2011 NFL Week 7 Picks: Lions over Falcons

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Game of the Week: Falcons at Lions

Ford Field finds itself center stage once again in the gridiron world after Week 6's scuffle between Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh. However, this affair hopes to keep its' wrestles during regulation as the upstart 5-1 Lions take on last season's regular-season conference champion Atlanta Falcons in the WhatIfSports.com Game of the Week.

Detroit, notorious for their early-season comebacks from seemingly insurmountable deficits, got a dose of their own medicine last week as San Francisco scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to knock the Lions from the pack of unbeatens. Still, few pigskin pundits would have imagined Detroit to be 5-1 at this juncture of the season. Built on the explosive arm of Matthew Stafford (1,729 yards, 98.2 QB rating, 15 touchdowns) and deep-threat deftness of Calvin Johnson (36 receptions, 564 yards, nine touchdowns), the Lions are averaging 29.7 points per game, second-best in the NFC. While the rushing game has mostly been held in check (90.8 yards per game, 13th in the conference), Jahvid Best has had his moments (like going for 163 yards on the ground against the Bears in Week 5) and has 390 rushing yards and another 287 through the air for the Lions.

But we'd be remiss in failing to mention the Detroit defense, which has been the catalyst for the marvelous start in Motown. The Lions are holding opponents to 19 points per contest while suffocating them to the tune of 335 total yards, third-best in the NFC. The rush resistance is nothing to scuff at, but it is the secondary that has boasted the unit as one of the league's best, smothering their aerial adversaries to a conference-low 205.5 yards per game. The defense has also managed more interceptions (eight) than surrendered passing scores (seven).

Unfortunately, the Falcons are on the opposite side of the secondary spectrum. One of the better protectors against the pass last season, Atlanta is giving up 282.8 yards per outing this season, second-worst in the conference. The Dirty Birds have been opportunistic, snagging nine picks, but opposing signal callers have had their way in the early going against Mike Smith's squad.

Luckily for Atlanta, a balanced offensive attack has kept the team floating through the first six weeks. Running back Michael Turner is inflicting his usual damage with 499 yards and six touchdowns in the early going, and rookie Julio Jones has lived up to his hype, hauling in 25 catches for 358 yards. But all is not right in the Georgia Dome. Despite posting solid numbers (34 receptions, 373 yards, two touchdowns), Roddy White has not been his usual self. The perennial Pro Bowler leads the league in drops, and has been disgruntled for the past few weeks. Odd, as White is second in the NFL in targets with 60 passes in his direction. If Atlanta hopes to surmount a postseason run, White will need an about-face for the Falcon offense to fly.

So who wins this matchup in the Motor City? According to the award-winning WhatIfSports.com simulation engine, the Lions come out on top 56.6 percent of the time by an average score of 22-20. For the rest of this week's predictions, check below:

NFL Week 7
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
St. Louis Rams	12.3	14	Boxscore
@ Dallas Cowboys	87.7	30	Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts	16.0	18	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	84.0	29	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	38.1	17	Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins	61.9	20	Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks	39.9	17	Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns	60.1	20	Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons	43.4	20	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	56.6	22	Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs	46.7	20	Boxscore
@ Oakland Raiders	53.3	21	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	53.7	24	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	46.3	22	Simulate Game
Chicago Bears	53.7	23	Boxscore
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	46.3	22	Simulate Game
Washington Redskins	55.8	22	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	44.2	20	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	58.0	22	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	42.0	20	Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers	75.5	29	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	24.5	18	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	80.2	27	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Vikings	19.8	16	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	90.5	27	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	9.5	10	Simulate Game