WhatIfSports NFL Week 14 Predictions

Jake WestrichDec 5, 2008

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here.

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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Game of the Week: No. 5 Cowboys 21 @ No. 3 Steelers 17

Statement game. This is the perfect time, the perfect place, and the perfect matchup for the Cowboys.

Dallas, our fifth-ranked team in the league, goes on the road to face our third-ranked team in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon—and (67 percent of the time) wins.

How?

The pass rush.

Pittsburgh is fifth worst in the NFL, allowing 9.8 sacks per 100 pass attempts. In the Steelers three losses, against great defensive ends like Justin Tuck, Dwight Freeney, and Trent Cole, Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 16 times.

In its nine wins Pittsburgh has allowed just 20 sacks. Keeping the quarterback upright means success for the Steelers.

Dallas ranks first in the league with 10.2 sacks per 100 pass attempts. Assuming our Preseason Defensive Player of the Year DeMarcus Ware is as healthy as he says he is, it could be a very long day for Big Ben and Pittsburgh.

Otherwise, these teams are very even in the simulations, averaging within nine rushing yards, six passing yards and 27 seconds of time of possession of each other. Two out of three times (by an average score of 21-17), Dallas emerges from Heinz Field as a victorious and very confident team.

As of right now, we like the Giants to play Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, but we'll keep you posted as the final quarter of the season progresses. New York should be a little worried about things clicking for the Cowboys over the final four weeks (you know—kind of like what happened to the Giants last season).

Super Bowl XLIII could very well be a rematch of this game (and Super Bowls X, XIII, and XXX).

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Week 14 Scores for Every NFL Game...

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
St. Louis @ Arizona	95	11-38	Boxscore
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis	86.2	11-25	Boxscore
Kansas City @ Denver	74.6	21-31	Boxscore
Cleveland @ Tennessee	70.7	17-26	Boxscore
Oakland @ San Diego	70.6	19-27	Boxscore
Philadelphia @ New York	70.1	18-27	Boxscore
Washington @ Baltimore	69.6	14-21	Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Chicago	67.8	13-20	Boxscore
Tampa Bay @ Carolina	64.3	18-24	Boxscore
Houston @ Green Bay	50	26-28	Boxscore
Miami @ Buffalo	45.1	22-22	Boxscore
Atlanta @ New Orleans	42.9	27-26	Boxscore
Dallas @ Pittsburgh	33	21-17	Boxscore
New England @ Seattle	31.3	24-19	Boxscore
New York @ San Francisco	31.2	27-22	Boxscore
Minnesota @ Detroit	20.4	27-18	Boxscore

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!