NFL Picks: Week 14

I'm 49-23 in the NFL picks this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

The Jags haven't won since early November against the Lions, and coach Jack Del Rio is, at best, on the verge of losing his players.  The Bears need to win this game to stay in the race for a division title for wild-card spot.  And they will.

Pick: Bears

Minnesota Vikings (7-5) at Detroit Lions (0-12)

The Lions are sinking deeper and deeper toward 0-16, and the Vikings are coming off a big divisional win over the Bears last week at the Metrodome.  Adrian Peterson has a solid shot to break his own single-game NFL rushing record against the Lions' porous defense.

Pick: Vikings

Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

The Colts won their fifth game in a row last week, despite the fact that the offense almost didn't even score a touchdown against the lowly Browns.  Peyton Manning should bounce back at home against a terrible Cincinnati defense.

Pick: Colts

Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) at New York Giants (11-1)

The Giants are without question playing the best football of any team in the NFL.  The Eagles' defense is still very good, but their lack of a passing game will kill them against the G-Men.

Pick: Giants

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (11-1)

The Titans got back on track last week with a blowout win in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.  The Browns didn't score a touchdown, and they're starting Ken Dorsey at QB this week.  Hmm, I wonder who'll win this game. 

Pick: Titans

Atlanta Falcons (8-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-6)

The Falcons are surging, and the Saints can't seem to do anything right (leave Drew Brees, of course).

Pick: Falcons

Houston Texans (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (5-7)

The return of Matt Shaub should keep the Texans thinking positive after their win on Monday Night Football.  Steve Slaton should have a field day.  But their pass defense will get torn to shreds by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game.  Still, I think the Texans win a shootout.

Pick: Texans

Miami Dolphins (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)

The Dolphins are fighting for a playoff berth, and the Bills just seem to find a way to lose every game.

Pick: Dolphins

New York Jets (8-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-8)

The Jets shouldn't have any trouble scoring on this 49ers defense that could be without its best player, cornerback Nate Clements—and SF doesn't have anywhere near the offensive firepower to keep up with the Jets.

Pick: Jets

New England Patriots (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (2-10)

The Seahawks still won't have QB Matt Hasselbeck back this week, so Julius Jones will be forced to shoulder most of the offensive load again.  Plus, Seattle's defense sucks.  There's no reason why the Pats won't get back on track this week.

Pick: Pats

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Denver Broncos (7-5)

This game is enigmatic since the Chiefs beat the Broncos in the teams' last meeting, so I'll go with my gut and take the Broncos.

Pick: Broncos

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Arizona Cardinals (8-4)

Kurt Warner, with his veteran presence, should have his offense ready to light it up again this week after a disappointing, somewhat shocking home loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving night.  And Arizona's defense ain't bad, either.

Pick: Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)

This is an ultimate matchup of high-flying offense vs. suffocating defense.  And I see Pittsburgh winning because they have such a dynamic group of linebackers that should be able to knock Tony Romo out his rhythm.  And those LBs are just as good at stopping the run as they are at pass-rushing.

Pick: Steelers

Washington Redskins (7-5) at Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

Without a healthy Clinton Portis, the Redskins are just another team.  Look for the Ravens to win a low-scoring game.

Pick: Ravens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) at Carolina Panthers (9-3)

The Bucs slaughtered the Panthers in the teams' first meeting on Oct. 12 at Raymond James Stadium.  Even though NFC South teams are 22-2 in home divisional games this season, I have to go with the Bucs because Jeff Garcia has been a total Panthers killer in his career.  His athleticism and accuracy outside the pocket just gives Carolina fits.

Pick: Bucs