College Football Picks Week 7: Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans

The No. 11 Michigan Wolverines (6-0) and No. 23 Michigan State Spartans (4-1) will meet up for the 104th time Saturday and windy conditions are expected to keep the game on the ground.

Kickoff from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI, is expected at Noon ET and will be televised on ESPN.

Oddsmakers have made the Spartans surprising three-point favorites, but we're going to look squarely at the total, which has been bet up two full points to a key number of 49.

Early weather forecasts suggest that the East Lansing area will start seeing winds of 20 mph-plus around 10 a.m. (ET), continuing to blow at the level throughout the game.

This information wasn't readily available when bettors started wagering on the over at an eighty percent clip Monday afternoon, which I believe will cause this total to plummet to around 46.5 before kickoff.

Fans familiar with this rivalry certainly know the importance of the ground battle, as 38 of the last 41 games have been won by the team that has finished with the most rushing yards.

A lot of casual bettors have stated that Michigan State's defense is overrated due to the level of competition it has faced, but there's no disputing that the unit has held Michigan to an average of 293.3 total yards of offense in the last three meetings, all Spartans' victories.

Some will argue that the Wolverines' offense is much different due to Brady Hoke replacing Rich Rodriguez, but the personnel is unchanged.

Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson isn't an accurate thrower and often likes to go vertical in the passing game to open up running lanes.  Under these conditions, it will be incredibly hard to complete a pass of over 20 yards in the air.

There's no doubt that early bettors found the original total of 47 appealing from a value standpoint, as last year's 34-17 Spartans' win finished well below 64.5, but would go just above the current betting odds in Las Vegas.

Don't get blown over.

Pick:  Under 49 points