NFL Picks Week 6: Colts Will Make It Interesting vs. Favored Bengals

One of these days, the Indianapolis Colts are going to win a game. They're bad, but the 2008 Detroit Lions they are not.

There are a lot of people out there who think the Colts are going to get that elusive W this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Everyone agrees that the Bengals are a surprisingly good team, but they are also the kind of team that would lose a game to the hapless Colts.

The oddsmakers disagree, of course. They have the Bengals favored by seven points, which is pretty big as far as spreads go.

I happen to agree with the oddsmakers, but only partially. While I do think the Bengals are going to win, I don't think they're going to cover.

The one thing that worries me about the Colts going up against the Bengals is that they will be a very bad offensive team going up against a very good defensive team. The Bengals currently rank in the top 10 in the league against both the run and the pass, and the Colts do neither particularly well.

That being said, Curtis Painter is coming around. He's thrown two touchdown passes in back-to-back weeks, and has played mistake-free football. These are things that any of us didn't think he was capable of, so he deserves some credit.

If Painter can build on this success against the Bengals, he's going to keep the Colts in the game. Then it will be a matter of them keeping Cincinnati's offense in check.

Which won't be easy. The Colts' defense is undermanned up front, and I don't think that bodes well against a powerful running back like Cedric Benson, who seems safe from his pending suspension for now.

So when you read the signs, it actually does seem like the seven-point spread is actually quite justified.

As justified as it may be, you have to consider how the Colts have played in their last three games. They haven't won any of them, but they've been nothing if not respectable. They lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers by three points, to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by seven points and to the Kansas City Chiefs by four points. At one point or another, the Colts had leads in all three games.

Given the way they've been going, I expect the Colts to go down, but they won't go down without a fight.

Bengals 24, Colts 20