NFL Picks Week 6: Atlanta Falcons and 3 Favorites to Avoid

There are some spreads that just make you go "Hmmm..."

Yeah, you know exactly what I'm talking about. For whatever reason, there are some games that are just plain hard to pick, and the spreads can complicate things to an unfathomable degree.

If you haven't yet looked at the schedule for Week 6, just know that there are a couple of these "Hmmm..." spreads out there. In particular, there are three favorites I think you should be very cautious of.

In fact, I would avoid them altogether if I were you.

Note: All spreads are from Bodog.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

The Falcons are a better team than their 2-3 record suggests, so it's no surprise they are favored at home against the 1-4 Panthers.

The problem I have is that these two teams are more closely matched than it would seem. Thanks to Cam Newton, the Panthers have a knack for making things interesting. They haven't been blown out yet, and I don't think they will at any point this season.

Certainly not by the Falcons, anyway. The two games they won had margins of victory of two and four points. I expect them to have a similarly hard time against the Panthers. If they do win, it will be by a thread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13)

The Jaguars are definitely a bad team, but this spread is basically daring you to take the Steelers' 38-17 thrashing of the Tennessee Titans as a sign they are back to being the Steelers again.

I'm not so sure. Remember, this is a team that barely beat the Indianapolis Colts a couple weeks ago, and they're playing a Jaguars team that has been able to hang tough in three straight games.

Don't get me wrong, the Steelers will win. I just don't think they're going to win by 13 points. They’re not that awful, and the Steelers aren’t that dominant.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Who would have thought at the start of the season that this would end up being the game of the week?

Nobody, that's who. Yet the game of the week is exactly what the matchup between the 49ers and Lions is. They are two of the NFC's best teams, and both of them are virtual locks to make the postseason.

The Lions do have the home-field advantage in this one, but what worries me is that they are hosting the 49ers on short rest thanks to their Monday night game. The 49ers just played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after they came off a Monday night game, and the 49ers beat them by 45 points.

A similar blowout is not in the cards, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this game came down to the final play. If the 49ers don't pull off the upset, they'll at least beat the spread.