NFL Predictions Week 6: Why the Red-Hot Lions Won't Cover vs. 49ers

It’s the perfect setup for a letdown.

Coming off a highly emotional prime-time win against the Chicago Bears, the Detroit Lions are riding as high as they have in the last 10 to 15 years.

Naturally, the betting public is overacting to all of this publicity and the Lions enter Week 6 as 4.5-point favorites over the visiting San Francisco 49ers.

Take the 49ers.

The Lions have been able to mask their lack of run game thus far, but that’s about to change. Jahvid Best is going to get eaten alive against a ferocious 49ers front four that ranks fourth in the league against the rush.

Conversely, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have turned into a terrific two-headed monster in a backfield averaging 117 yards a game. The Niners can control the clock with the ground attack and more importantly…keep QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson off the field.

That’s the big key for the game. Keeping the dynamic duo on the sideline will keep the score low and 49ers QB Alex Smith won’t be forced into a shootout—something he’s incapable of doing.

That’s not Smith’s game. He is a game manager that keeps the chains moving and doesn’t commit turnovers. In fact, the 49ers are ranked No. 1 in the NFL in fewest giveaways. It’s been the top reason the team is 4-1.

Here are a few more fun facts about a team that is quietly dominating the league after five games:

1. San Francisco is No. 1 in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed.

2. They are second in the league in points per game.

3. They are second in the league in turnovers forced.

In other words, this team is no fluke.

The Lions, with less time to prepare and inflated egos, are going to start sipping their own Kool-Aid and commit enough turnovers to ultimately seal the deal for San Francisco.

Prediction: 49ers 24 Lions 21

Key Trends

49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.

49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.

49ers are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Lions are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)