NFL Picks Week 6: Why Falcons and Saints Are NFC South Favorites to Jump on

There are two NFC South teams favored by 4.5 or less that have a ton of value in Week 6. The lines have yet to adjust and now is the time to jump on board.

Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Falcons played uninspired football last week against the Packers, a shame considering Green Bay knocked them out of the playoffs last year.

Expect the urgency to set in this week against division rival Carolina. Matt Ryan, a guy who desperately needs a big game, will be able to move the ball on a weak Panthers secondary.

The Falcons quietly have a top 10 rushing defense that should be able to contain a Panthers unit that has struggled more often than not this season.

Rookie QB Cam Newton has still yet to have his first really bad game and this will be his first game in a dome.

The rookie gets rattled and ends up making a few stupid mistakes that turn into points to for the Falcons.

Key Trends:

Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Panthers are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Atlanta.

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

New Orleans Saints -4.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints are quietly humming along and are avoiding the national spotlight.

People are forgetting about them, but this just in: Drew Brees has thrown for 1,769 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Saints have the second ranked attack through the air and have great versatility when it comes to receivers.

The defense is slowly coming together as their new additions up front finally get into playing shape. The secondary is a concern but that’s not a problem with Josh Freeman on the other side.

He had an atrocious week against the 49ers and the entire passing offense is among the worst in the league.

Expect the Saints to grab a big lead early and use the second half to control the time of possession and kill the clock.

Prediction: Saints 26 Buccaneers 20

Key Trends:

Saints are 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning records.

Buccaneers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog.

Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records.

Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tampa Bay.

Road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.