NFL Picks Week 6: Why the Packers and Steelers Are Overvalued by Vegas

Just because the Pittsburgh Steelers stomped an overrated Tennessee Titans team in Week 5 doesn’t mean they are suddenly a good team.

This week the Steelers are favored by 13 points over the Jacksonville Jaguars at the ketchup bottle. Sure they’re at home and sure they tend to feast on young QBs…but that’s simply way too many points to give an aging and injured team.

RB Rashard Mendenhall was nothing more than an emergency back on Sunday, and it’s still unclear if his hamstring will allow him to play against the Jags.

QB Ben Roethlisberger had one of the best games of his career against the Titans, but he’s still troubled by a weak ankle that will limit him in the pocket. He’ll still be able to throw on a mediocre Jags secondary—but not like he did last week.

QB Blaine Gabbert has improved each week and is starting to get comfortable in the offense. As long as he doesn’t panic when the pressure comes, he is the short throwing and extremely accurate passer that can give the Steelers trouble—especially without James Harrison.

I’m not predicting a Jags upset here, but this game will be closer than 13 points.

Prediction: Steelers 26, Jags 17

Speaking of lines that are too high, don’t take the Packers -14.5 against the Rams.

St. Louis has been awful, no doubt about it. Yet there is a lot of talent there and this team comes off a bye as the most desperate team in football.

At 0-4 there is still hope for the Rams in the weak NFC West (although San Fran may disagree).

Sophomore QB Sam Bradford has gotten two weeks to digest film and figure out why he has taken a giant step backwards. RB Steven Jackson will be healthy for the first time since Week 2 and offseason pickup WR Mike Sims-Walker is starting to become more involved in the offense and should find the seam against a rather soft Packer secondary.

Aaron Rodgers will be putting up big points and yes, the Packers are the best team in football…but they won’t be blowing out a fresh Rams team a week after a very physical and somewhat poorly played game against Atlanta.

Prediction: Packers 34, Rams 23

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)