NFL Picks Week 5: Last-Minute Picks for Every Game This Weekend

Michael DixonOct 8, 2011

With six NFL teams on a bye this week, there are 13 games on the NFL schedule between Sunday and Monday.

Five of those games pit two teams that sport at least 2-2 records against each other.

So, what can we expect from those games?

Well, the NFL world is unpredictable. Just when you think you have everything figured out, something crazy happens and you're left guessing for another week.

As fans, that's really all we can ask for.

Still, even in the unpredictable world, it's always fun to take a look at the weekend's game and try to figure out what we're going to see.

All betting information courtesy of Bodog.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

1 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: CBS

Spread: Steelers (-3.5)

Keys to Titans' win

Matt Hasselbeck needs to continue playing well. He won't win the game on his own, but he can't make a lot of mistakes.

Even without James Harrison, the Pittsburgh defense is very effective.

Defensively, Tennessee needs to put constant pressure on a banged up Ben Roethlisberger.

Key to Steelers' win

Offensively, the Steelers need to run well. Roethlisberger takes a lot of hits as it is. With an injured ankle, he's very vulnerable if the Titans are putting a lot of pressure on him.

Defensively, they need to contain Chris Johnson and make the Titans rely on the Matt Hasselbeck led passing game.

Prediction

The Steelers are going to have to shuffle things a little bit to make up for Harrison's loss. I like Tennessee's chances at exploiting them.

I am not sure the Titans are as good as their 3-1 record would suggest, but I like their chances in this one.

Titans 20, Steelers 14

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

2 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: Fox

Spread: Giants (-10)

Keys to Seahawks' win

They need to play mistake free football. Any mistakes made by the Giants need to be fully capitalized on by Seattle.

Key to Giants' win

If the Giants get off to a good start and force Tarvaris Jackson to beat them with his arm, it's going to be a long day for the Seahawks.

Prediction

Away from Seattle, I really don't like the Seahawks' chances here. The Giants are beaten up and will be all year, but Seattle is simply not a good football team.

I am going with the Giants to win this one with relative ease and move to 4-1.

Giants 27, Seahawks 6

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

3 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: CBS

Spread: Bengals (-1)

Keys to Bengals' win

The Bengals need to get their big play makers like A.J. Green involved in a big way. Green is off to a great start and fellow rookie Andy Dalton needs to find him early and often.

Defensively, they must get pressure on rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

Key to Jaguars' win

Considering they are facing a rookie quarterback, they need to do the same thing defensively as their opponents. Jacksonville must pressure Andy Dalton.

Offensively, Gabbert needs to make a few key passes, but Maurice Jones-Drew will be important. He will need to control the game.

Prediction

I really like Jacksonville's chances here. In Cincinnati, I would give the edge to the Bengals. But in Jacksonville, I like Gabbert to get his first win as an NFL starter.

Jaguars 17, Bengals 10

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

4 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: Fox

Spread: Saints (-7)

Keys to Saints' win

If they don't turn it over, the Saints should cruise. They have far too many weapons for the Panthers to compete with.

Defensively, the Saints will shut anyone down. But they need to be aggressive and force turnovers and sacks.

Every now and again, they will get burnt. Fortunately, their offense is more than good enough to outscore anyone.

Key to Panthers' win

Cam Newton needs to do what he does best. He needs to pass for a lot of yards and find his veteran options.

Unfortunately, he can't do some of the negatives. If Newton turns the ball over, the Saints will bury the Panthers

Prediction

I do expect a high scoring game here. The Panthers will keep giving their fans reason for hope, but that won't come in the way of a win.

New Orleans is just too good.

Saints 42, Panthers 21

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

5 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: CBS

Spread: Texans (-5)

Keys to Raiders' win

They need to contain Arian Foster. The Texans have plenty of offense, but will be hurt without Andre Johnson.

If the Raiders let Foster run free, the advantage they have without Johnson is gone.

Key to Texans' win

Darren McFadden will likely have a huge day, that's fine. The Texans need to pressure Jason Campbell and limit the rest of the Oakland offense. If that happens, the Raiders don't have much of a chance here.

Prediction

At home, the Texans will just be too strong. They are really a good team, even without Andre Johnson.

I don't see how the Raiders can contain Arian Foster. They have had a hard time defending the run against backs that aren't as good as Foster.

Texans 33, Raiders 21

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills

6 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: Fox

Spread: Eagles (-3)

Keys to Eagles' win

A football game is four quarters. The Eagles need to run the ball better and stop the run.

If they can do those two things, they will win not only this game, but most of their remaining games

Key to Bills' win

If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't turn it over and they run the ball well, this game will belong to the Bills.

Prediction

I don't see how the Eagles are favored by three in Buffalo. We know what they are capable of, but they just don't defend well enough.

Michael Vick will have another big game, but I expect the Bills to overcome that and pull this one out. If the 49ers can do it against the Eagles in Philadelphia, then Buffalo can do it in Buffalo.

Bills 34, Eagles 27

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

7 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: CBS

Spread: Colts (-3)

Keys to Chiefs' win

They need to find a way to get their offensive play makers involved in the game.They haven't done a good enough job of doing that this year.

Defensively, they need to attack Curtis Painter.

Key to Colts' win

They need to attack Matt Cassel. The Colts still have elite pass rushers.

Offensively, they need to run well and get Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark involved.

Prediction

The team is clearly better with Curtis Painter. I like his chances at getting the play makers involved. In Indianapolis, I expect the Colts' fans to leave this one happy.

Colts 21, Chiefs 13

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

8 of 13

Time: 1 p.m. EDT

TV: Fox

Spread: Vikings (-3)

Keys to Cardinals' win

Larry Fitzgerald. It's really that simple. He's their best weapon on offense and really the only person that creates bad matchups.

Key to Vikings' win

The default answer is Adrian Peterson, but that's not quite right here. If Donovan McNabb has a good game, the Vikings will win this one.

That's not to say that Peterson won't be a factor, but he's reliable. He alone won't win for Minnesota.

Prediction

The NFC West is just dismal this year. The Vikings 0-4 record is bad, but that's a little deceptive. In Minnesota, I think they will come out of the funk.

Vikings 24, Cardinals 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

9 of 13

Time: 4:05 p.m. EDT

TV: Fox

Spread: 49ers (-3)

Keys to Buccaneers' win

Josh Freeman needs to get his big play makers involved. The 49ers have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Buccaneers will need to exploit that.

Key to 49ers' win

The 49ers need to keep running well, and get the ball to Vernon Davis. That's their best chance on offense at having a good day.

Prediction

Both teams are 3-1, neither has been dominant in any way. This is really close but at home, I'll go with the 49ers. It's quite likely that we'll see both of these teams in the playoffs.

49ers 20, Buccaneers 14

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

10 of 13

Time: 4:15 p.m. EDT

TV: CBS

Spread: Giants (-10)

Keys to Jets' win

Their defense guides the team, but the offense needs to be more efficient. Mark Sanchez needs to move the ball. Also, when they get in position to score, they need to.

Key to Patriots' win

If the Patriots don't turn it over, they will win. They will need to keep running the ball wall. The Jets defense is too good for the Patriots to be one dimensional.

Prediction

The Patriots will get their revenge in this one. The Jets aren't playing as well as they were last postseason.

I like the Patriots to win win this one pretty easily.

Patriots 28, Jets 17

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

11 of 13

Time: 4:15 p.m. EDT

TV: CBS

Spread: Chargers (-4)

Keys to Chargers' win

This shouldn't be en especially challenging game. If the Chargers don't turn the ball over, they should cruise to a win here.

Key to Broncos' win

Kyle Orton needs to be spectacular. Denver's defense will not contain the San Diego offense. Their only chance is to score a lot and hope for some help at the end.

Prediction

San Diego is too talented and Denver is a mess. This one will get ugly.

Chargers 38, Broncos 17