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Vanderbilt vs. Alabama: Spread Info, Line, BCS Impact and Predictions

Mike ChiariOct 7, 2011

After consecutive wins over ranked teams Arkansas and Florida, the now No. 2-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will host the SEC rival Vanderbilt Commodores. At 5-0, the Tide are on their way to an appearance in the national championship game, but Vandy may have something to say about that.

The Commodores have gotten off to a nice start at 3-1 and are coming off a bye week following their 21-3 loss to South Carolina. I wouldn't consider them to be in the same class as Alabama, but their defense has been solid and has had a full week to game-plan for the Tide. 

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Alabama has beaten three ranked teams this season and has won every one of its contests in convincing fashion. The Tide possess the best scoring defense in the nation and a top-20 offense to boot, which could be a deadly combination for Vanderbilt.

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

When: Saturday, Oct. 8 at 7 p.m. ET

Watch: ESPNU 

Spread: Alabama (-29.5)

Seeing as the Crimson Tide are 4-1 against the spread this season, it would seem like a no-brainer to pick them. A line of 29.5 points is quite hefty, though, so I would be inclined to take Vanderbilt. I don't expect the game to be close, but the Commodores have wins over Ole Miss and UConn so they're capable of staying within four touchdowns.

Over/Under: 42

Vanderbilt Key Injuries

Out: LB Tristan Strong (knee)

Doubtful: WR John Cole (leg), RB Warren Norman (knee)

Probable: QB Larry Smith (neck), TE Brandon Barden (ankle)

Alabama Key Injuries

Out: RB Dee Hart (knee), WR Duron Carter (eligibility)

Questionable: LB Chris Jordan (undisclosed)

Probable: RB Eddie Lacy (foot), DB DeQuan Menzie (back), LB C.J. Mosley (elbow)

BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications

Vanderbilt currently isn't in consideration for a Top 25 spot, but a monumental upset over Alabama would certainly catapult the Commodores right into the polls. Despite that, this game has everything to do with the Crimson Tide.

Alabama leapfrogged Oklahoma in the polls by virtue of its impressive win over Florida last week and looks to control its own destiny in terms of a national championship berth. With teams like LSU, Oklahoma and Boise State also playing incredibly well, the Tide can't even afford a single loss.

Keys to Vanderbilt Win

Pray. That's really all Vandy can do at this point because Alabama is better in virtually every facet of the game. The Commodores do have a good defense, though, so if they can somehow get to quarterback AJ McCarron and rattle him a bit, then that might be their best chance.

The Commodores have had a pretty good rushing attack through the season's first four games as well, so they'll need to use it to control the football, but it remains to be seen whether any team can effectively run the ball on the Tide. 

Keys to Alabama Win

As long as Alabama plays its game, then it should have no problem disposing of Vanderbilt. It starts and ends with defense as the Tide have given up barely more than eight points per game this season. If they can keep the Commodores out of the end zone, then Vanderbilt doesn't stand a chance.

McCarron has run the offense effectively, but running back Trent Richardson is the one that makes the offense go. He has over 600 yards and 10 touchdowns through five games and may be the leader in the Heisman Trophy race. If Vandy can't contain him, then it will be a long day for the Commodores.

Prediction: Alabama 41, Vanderbilt 14

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