Boise State vs. Fresno State: Spread Info, Line, BCS Impact and Predictions

The No. 5 Boise State Broncos' run toward a BCS Bowl berth, or possibly a chance to play for the National Championship, continues Friday night when they travel to take on the 2-3 Fresno State Bulldogs.

As usual, the Broncos have been dominant this season, as they have yet to win by more than two touchdowns. While detractors may say they have an easy schedule, the fact remains that Boise State ranks in the top 30 in both total offense and total defense.

The Bulldogs have struggled this season, although they have lost to some quality teams such as Nebraska and California. While they may get a boost from home-field advantage, Fresno State will have its work cut out against Boise State.

Where: Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, Calif.

When: Friday, Oct. 7 at 9 p.m. EDT

Watch: ESPN/ESPN3

Spread: Boise State (-21)

While Boise State is 5-0 this season, they are just 3-2 against the spread and failed to cover 27.5-point spreads in back-to-back weeks against Tulsa and Nevada respectively. The 21-point spread is right on the borderline, but I would take the Broncos since they are clearly superior to the Bulldogs.

Over/Under: 58.5

Boise State Key Injuries

Out: DB Jerrell Gavins (knee), OL Jake Broyles (toe), RB Malcolm Johnson (knee)

Doubtful: FB Dan Paul (groin), DL Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe (eligibility)

Questionable: WR Chris Potter (hamstring), C Thomas Byrd (undisclosed)

Probable: OL Matt Paradis (undisclosed), WR Geraldo Boldewjin (eligibility) 

Fresno State Key Injuries

Out: FB Tapa Taumoepeau (knee), DB Phillip Thomas (leg), DB Derron Smith (arm)

Questionable: RB A.J. Ellis (ankle), WR Victor Dean (foot)

Probable: OL Leslie Cooper (ankle), OL Matt Hunt (ankle), OL Richard Helepiko (ankle)

BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications

While Fresno State isn't playing for ranking purposes, every game is vital for Boise State. As members of the Mountain West Conference, the Broncos don't get much respect nationally, so even a single loss will cripple them in the polls and eliminate all hope of a BCS appearance.

As long as the Broncos continue to win, then they will almost certainly play in a BCS Bowl come season's end, so they can't afford to take nay game lightly. The Bulldogs are talented and could surprise the Broncos, but they'll be ready.

Keys to Boise State Win

The Broncos are a very complete team, but their success begins and ends with quarterback Kellen Moore. If Moore plays well, then chances are that the Broncos are going to win, but if he plays poorly (which very rarely happens), then the opposition has a chance.

Moore is completing an incredible 74 percent of his passes this season for 1,137 yards and 14 touchdowns. Moore has an excellent track record against Fresno State, so the odds point to him turning in another top-shelf performance.

Keys to Fresno State Win

A Fresno State win doesn't seem likely, but their best chance is to control the ball on offense with the running game. Running back Robbie Rouse has been spectacular this season with 600 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and he needs to come up huge on Friday.

The less Moore and the Bronco offense have the ball, the better odds the Bulldogs have of winning. The Boise State defense is extremely stout, though, so it remains to be seen whether a ball-control offense is a true possibility.

Prediction

Boise State 44, Fresno State 20