NFL Picks Week 5: Handicapping Jets vs. Patriots and 2 Largest Spreads

One of the hardest things to do when gambling on the NFL is biting the bullet and taking a favorite by over a touchdown.

You have to feel very strong about a team to surrender such a large margin. This week there are two giant spreads, one you should take and one to beware at all costs: 

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)  

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants -9.5

The Giants are banged up, yet still are doing enough to win thee of their first four games.

Eli Manning has gotten better in every game this season and will be facing a Seattle secondary that is below average.

The Seahawks have looked horrible on the road this season and are stuck with the dreaded “west coast team playing the early game on the east coast” tag that so many gamblers take into consideration.

With QB Tavaris Jackson under center, it’s hard to imagine many scenarios where the Seahawks unbalanced offense moves the ball against a Giants front line that can be down-right terrifying for opponents that have never faced it.

Expect the Giants to build a strong lead early then bleed the clock with their potent two-headed running attack. 

Key Trends:

Giants are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Giants are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games in October. 

Prediction: Giants 31 Seahawks 17 

New York Jets @ New England Patriots -9.5

The betting public has short memories and everyone remembers last week’s beat down at the hands of the Ravens.

The running attack is non-existent and they can’t stop the opponents ground game as well. The Patriots offense is on pace to break all kinds of records and looks like an absolute juggernaut at this point.

This is why the line is so high.

In reality, the Jets have the second best pass defense in the league and can slow Brady down. No team consistently plays the Pats as well as the Jets.

I don’t think Mark Sanchez can create the sort of offense to ultimately win this game, but I think the defense and special teams gets them a score and Sanchez makes enough throws down the field to Santonio Holmes to get this game within double-digits.

Don’t forget that the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league defending the pass. 

Key Trends:

Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East.

Road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. 

Prediction: Patriots 35 Jets 27