NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

I played some poker in Biloxi, Mississippi earlier this week. I used to take the game very seriously, playing up to 20 hours a week or more at one or two online sites.

This, of course, was all pre-UIGEA, but don’t get me started on that. The point I was driving at was that a responsible person can place a wager or two and avoid being consumed by the devil or leveraging his family’s assets and plunging them into utter ruin.

In fact, a few irresponsible people can enjoy it responsibly as well.

Let’s put it this way—I do a little better with my poker than I do with my football picks. But similar principles apply: nobody would be silly enough to play every single hand dealt to them at the poker table.

That would send any player’s win rate plummeting through the floor. But in this column, I will pick every single game.

I’ll still give those awful betting games attention and leave you an opportunity to agree or disagree with my thoughts on it. Because that’s what I do.

I was 8-8 in my picks last week, which leaves me at 27-33-4 on the season so far.

My picks have improved each week, so those of you that have come to embrace the “let’s pick the exact opposite of what Josh picked” method might be headed for trouble.

Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington and Baltimore all have byes this week. These other 26 teams do not.

INDIANAPOLIS straight up over Kansas City.

Quick aside on how some sites are pricing these bets—some sites provided a line for this game; the site I primarily use, as of yesterday, did not.

But those other sites that did provide one wonked it up by offering “Ind -3” for +115 or “Ind -1” for -130. What is the point of that?

If a site isn’t offering the line for -110, then that’s not the line, and if you as a site can’t offer that, don’t bother. I’ll listen to an argument on that, but that’s how I feel.

Anyway, if you’re getting two or three points for Kansas City, I would take them. But for our purposes here, we’ll pick this game straight up and take Indy, whose defense has answered the bell since the injury to Kerry Collins.

We’re looking at low scores and a narrow margin of victory here. Collins probably wishes that he would have just stayed home this season. He isn’t the only one.

Arizona +3 over MINNESOTA.

Donovan McNabb hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game since last Thanksgiving, and you’d think that someone who plays football as much as he does would eventually have one by accident (what’s up, Chad Henne in Week 1?).

And it’s amazing to me that a guy with Adrian Peterson as his tailback can’t do more to get his team going.

Yeah, Arizona’s only 1-3, but they’ve been competitive in their losses against average teams. The Vikings are on a five-year plan to be average.

Oakland +6 over HOUSTON.

The Texans did everything to lose their game against the Steelers last week—two touchdowns were called back after ridiculous penalties—yet they still won.

Don’t expect the same leeway from the Raiders, who seem to finally have their act together for the first time in nearly a decade.

Andre Johnson will almost certainly not play with that strained hamstring that he suffered against the Steelers. Am I the only one that gasps at those slow-motion replays of guys falling to the turf after non-contact injuries?

Those are as scary as some of those helmet-to-helmet hits, in my view.

CAROLINA +6 over New Orleans.

I smell a shootout.

Cam Newton is averaging 346 yards passing per game, just six yards fewer than Drew Brees. And both of these teams feature unimpressive pass defenses.

There aren’t many games that would make me think, “52.5 seems like a low total here.” I’m hoping for a barn-burner, just so we can look forward to these teams matching up again in Week 17.

Cincinnati -2.5 over JACKSONVILLE.

The over-under for this game is 37, which I believe is the lowest I’ve seen all year (KC-Indy was close at 38.5). The Jags haven’t hit the over since January 2nd, in large part because they can’t score points in the second half.

Maurice Jones-Drew is also having a disappointing fantasy season—through four games, he only has a single rushing touchdown. Conversely, I think the Bengals deserve a little more respect after holding the Bills to 20 points last week.

Tennessee straight up over PITTSBURGH.  

I wonder if the number of injured stars in this game scared some folks from putting a line out for it.

Kenny Britt tore his ACL and MCL against the Broncos two weeks ago, and that’s bad news for Matt Hasselbeck, whose resurgence as a passer helped Chris Johnson finally rack up his first 100-yard game of the season last week.

The Steelers have injury concerns of their own. While Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play this week with a sprained foot, James Harrison is out.

BUFFALO +3 over Philadelphia.

Guy on a buffalo!

Seattle +9.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS.

Some of you are upset about my incessant badgering of Tarvaris Jackson, and that’s totally fair.

He’s not the worst quarterback in the league, either. In fact, he might be the best bad starting QB playing right now.

Looking at yards per pass attempt for players under center that started all four games, the players holding down the bottom are (starting with the worst) Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Donovan McNabb, Matt Cassel, and then Jackson.

Ahead of him? Kyle Orton and Josh Freeman, who probably needs to have his ass iced down after the way Jon Gruden kept kissing it in that Monday night telecast.

To be fair, T-Jack’s offensive line deserves some of the blame here—he’s already been sacked 14 times this season (that’s as many sacks as Ben Roethlisberger) and his team ranks second-to-last in rushing yards. That’s some well-rounded ineptitude.

Pete Carroll will start punting on first down before Thanksgiving.

SAN FRANCISCO straight up over Tampa Bay.

The Niners have been good for two takeaways in every game they’ve played so far. Josh Freeman has been good for one interception per game.

Tampa Bay is coming off a short week with the Monday night win, which I only mention because everyone else on Earth will. I don’t think it’s that big a deal for the players. Maybe for the coaching staff, which has one less day to plan for the opponent.

New York Jets +9 over NEW ENGLAND.

How bad is Mark Sanchez when he’s getting nine points and I’m still nervous? Pretty bad.

San Diego -3.5 over DENVER.

It’s great to see that John Fox has picked up right where he left off in Charlotte. And if you find a better total this week than the 47 for this game, I’d love to know what it is.

Green Bay -5.5 over ATLANTA.

If you were hoping to see the Falcons on national television and not hear any commentary about Michael Vick, your ship has just come in.

I’m considering attending this game in person, just so I can scream like a little girl when Aaron Rodgers laces a bullet through triple coverage to Jordy Nelson.

That might be worth having my body and rights violated by stadium security. Maybe.

The Falcons are looking soft this year, but they still have Indianapolis and Minnesota on the schedule. They’ll be alright.

Chicago +5.5 over DETROIT.

Ndamukong Suh will have a new paperweight for his home office after this game—Jay Cutler’s head. Fortunately, Suh has a big desk.

Lines and other information used for this writing were provided by Statfox.