NFL Picks Week 5: Cardinals vs. Vikings and 3 Games Sure to Pass the over

The over/under point total is never easy to pick.

The ebbs and flows of an offense change on a weekly basis, making it quite difficult to peg down a specific score every week. 

Yet by using certain trends and common sense factors, it’s safe to say these Week 5 games are clearing the over.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 44.5

The Cardinals enjoyed a breakout game for RB Beanie Wells against the Giants and now the offense has some real balance to it.

The Vikings can’t hold onto a lead, but they have proven to be capable of putting points on the board. With QB Donovan McNabb playing for his job, expect him to come out firing.

Key Trends:

Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Minnesota.

Over is 4-0 in Vikings' last four games as a home favorite.

Over is 5-1 in Vikings' last six games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Over is 13-3-1 in Cardinals' last 17 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 43

The Giants have one of the best big play offenses in the league and have put up big numbers over the last two weeks despite dealing with multiple injuries.

Tarvaris Jackson is proving to be a competent QB, which should equal multiple touchdowns against a beat-up Giants secondary.

This game has the makings of a shootout.

Key Trends:

Over is 6-1 in Seahawks' last seven road games.

Over is 11-2 in Seahawks' last 13 vs. NFC.

Over is 13-3 in Seahawks' last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 12-3 in Seahawks' last 15 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Over is 4-1-1 in Giants' last six home games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 37

QB Andy Dalton is maturing before our eyes, and the Bengals offense is quietly one of the more balanced units in the league with the strong running presence of Cedric Benson.

Yet Dalton is also susceptible to make a stupid turnover that turns into easy points for the defense.

Sure, the Jags aren’t going to light up the scoreboard with rookie Blaine Gabbert making his second career start, but if they can muster two touchdowns, I believe the defense sets them up for a score as well.

With such a low total—that’s all you need.

Key Trends:

Over is 5-1 in Bengals' last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Over is 4-1 in Bengals' last five vs. AFC.

Over is 4-1 in Bengals' last five games as an underdog.

Over is 8-2-1 in Jaguars' last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.