NFL Picks Week 4: Bears and Falcons Lead Most Dangerous Plays Against the Spread

Some of the best plays we can make in a given week are the "no-plays" we choose to go with.

One can certainly get excited, crazy or overconfident (whichever you prefer to call it) and make plays on every game, but that is far from a practical way to win.

Week 4 might be the most difficult of the NFL season so far.

With a number of teams surprising us, week in and week out, we can start to connect the dots on teams that we can trust and the teams we cannot trust.

Here is a look a few teams that we cannot trust this week. 

Philadelphia Eagles Minus-9.0 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The team prematurely dubbed the "Dream Team" is off to a rough (and banged up) start this year.

The Giants gave them a good old-fashioned beating last week and they are still reeling.

The Eagles have failed to cover the spread for two weeks in a row and the 49ers have actually yet to lose against the spread this season.

San Francisco's offense is downright dreadful, but they somehow find a way to stay relevant in games and make just enough plays to win or cover.

Nine points, with an injured Michael Vick, is too many for the Eagles to lay right now.

Stay away or take the points. 

Chicago Bears Minus-6.0 vs. Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton is a bettor's worst nightmare. Even when he's too far down to actually win the game, he still finds a way to cover the spread for no reason other than to frustrate people (ask those of us who took the Packers, two weeks ago).

Without question, Chicago is the better football team, but we're talking about a six-point line that could very well be seven come game day.

Cam Newton and the Panthers could be down by 21 points in the third quarter and start chucking the ball all over the field again, against a Bears secondary that isn't very good.

Chicago should win, they may cover, but is too risky to play. 

Atlanta Falcons Minus-4.5 at Seattle Seahawks

The Falcons travelling out of their dome and into the Great Northwest scares the living daylights out of me.

As bad as the Seahawks and Tarvaris "Third and Long" Jackson truly are, the Falcons are a team struggling to find an identity right now.

They've thrown the football twice as much as they've ran it, and it is not doing them any favors.

Playing in Seattle is notoriously difficult and loud. The only win the Seahawks have this season, straight up and against the spread, is at home. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 0-2 on the road this season, straight up and against the spread.

Until the Falcons prove they're capable of playing sound football on the road, they are a no-play.