Week 13 NFL Football Betting Picks & Odds for Sunday, Nov. 30, 2008

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Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings u41.5 (-110)

Sunday, Nov. 30  8:15 PM

The Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings played to one of the most improbable results of the season earlier this year, a wild 48-41 Bears victory, but look for a return to normalcy here.

What made that result so unbelievable is the fact that these are actually two of the better defenses in the NFC, and the fact that the first meeting had a posted total of 38 gives you an idea of what most people expected.

Even with that defensive debacle on the record of each team, the Bears are still allowing only 21.3 points per game while the Vikings are allowing 22.4. Those numbers improve even more if we look at the home-away splits here, as Chicago is allowing just 17.0 points per game on the road while Minnesota has been just as stingy at home, allowing 17.2 points per contest.

The Bears have been very strong against the run, allowing 85.0 rushing yards per game on only 3,3 yards per rush.

Yes, Adrian Peterson did rush for 121 yards in that first meeting, but that whole game seems like a total aberration, and we look for the normally stingy Chicago run defense to contain him better this time around, basically daring the immobile and turn-over prone Gus Frerotte to try and beat them with his arm.

As for when the Bears have the ball, they are most successful when Matt Forte runs successfully. Well, the Minnesota defense is also staunch against the run, especially here at home where the Vikes are allowing a miniscule 61.6 rushing yards per contest. Like Frerotte, we do not trust Kyle Orton either if he is called upon to carry an offense.

Add this all up and we expect this contest to play out to a much more realistic level than the wacky first meeting did, meaning that these clubs should be hard-pressed to get out of the upper 30s.

NFL Free Pick: Bears, Vikings Under 41.5 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits

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