2011 College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Wisconsin over Nebraska

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Nebraska at Wisconsin

Consider it another great example of baptism by fire.

Nebraska's debut in the Big Ten will come under the lights when the Cornhuskers travel to Camp Randall this Saturday. The ninth-ranked team in the nation faces eighth-ranked Wisconsin in our Game of the Week.

Bo Pelini's offense focuses on two things when on the field: 1) running the ball 2) running the ball some more. Their rushing offense is currently ranked eighth (272.5 ypg). The Huskers are led by mobile quarterback Taylor Martinez, who has 63 carries for 421 yards and seven touchdowns. Nipping at his heels is junior running back Rex Burkhead with 63 carries for 420 yards and seven touchdowns. The balanced rushing attack is eerie.

Uncharacteristic of most Pelini programs, Nebraska is currently 56th in the nation in rushing defense. They've allowed 133.3 rush yards per game through their first four games. Nebraska is 46th in scoring defense at 22 points per game. The defense will need to address those gaps if they want to slow down Wisconsin.

The arrival of Russell Wilson hasn't slowed down the Badgers' rushing attack. As a team, Wisconsin is averaging 5.7 yards per carry with 16 rushing touchdowns (t-2nd with Nebraska).

But their 26th-ranked passing attack isn't to be ignored. Wilson has built a nice rapport with Nick Toon (21 receptions and five touchdowns) in the early going.

Wisconsin's 23rd-ranked rush defense (89.3 yards per game) will be tested on Saturday, but if they can slow down Taylor Martinez, the simulation engine thinks the Badgers are strong enough to come away with the win.

We simulated the Badgers and Cornhuskers 101 times and it's Wisconsin coming away with the win 65.8 percent of the time by an average score of 28-19.

Clemson at Virginia Tech

For the third consecutive week, the Clemson Tigers face a Top 25 program in Virginia Tech.

To this point, Dabo Swinney's crew has passed every test. Florida State was the latest Goliath slain thanks (in part) to Tajh Boyd's 344 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Seminoles, who were without their starting quarterback. That upset win followed victories over Auburn, Wofford and Troy.

The Hokies' path to Week 5 has been much cushier with wins over Appalachian State, East Carolina (17-10 final), Arkansas State and Marshall.

Frank Beamer's boys still lock things down on defense with the sixth-best scoring defense at 10 points per game. They are fourth in total yards allowed per game at just over 231.

We simulated the Tigers and Hokies 101 times and it's the Tigers pulling the upset 52 percent of the time by an average score of 28-27.

College Football Week 5
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Towson Tigers	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	95.0	48
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	95.0	53
Idaho Vandals	24.8	17	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	75.2	26
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	42.6	21	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	57.4	24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	44.6	28	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	55.4	29
Clemson Tigers	52.0	28	Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	48.0	27
Bowling Green Falcons	5.0	15	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	95.0	38
Marshall Thundering Herd	21.8	17	Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals	78.2	25
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	26.7	20	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	73.3	27
South Florida Bulls	45.5	24	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	54.5	26
Western Michigan Broncos	46.5	24	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	53.5	26
Minnesota Golden Gophers	7.9	16	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	92.1	35
Nebraska Cornhuskers	34.2	19	Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers	65.8	28
Northwestern Wildcats	45.5	25	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	54.5	26
Michigan State Spartans	57.4	26	Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	42.6	23
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	82.2	30	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	17.8	19
Penn State Nittany Lions	92.6	35	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	7.4	17
Kent State Golden Flashes	27.7	17	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	72.3	25
Toledo Rockets	50.0	28	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	50.0	27
Akron Zips	67.8	22	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	32.2	18
Northern Illinois Huskies	75.2	32	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	24.8	23
Cincinnati Bearcats	85.1	34	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	14.9	19
UCLA Bruins	5.0	16	Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal	95.0	39
Oregon State Beavers	15.8	21	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	84.2	31
Washington State Cougars	32.2	26	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	67.8	32
Washington Huskies	38.6	26	Boxscore
@ Utah Utes	61.4	29
Arizona Wildcats	48.5	28	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	51.5	29
Kentucky Wildcats	6.9	12	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	93.1	33
Buffalo Bulls	7.9	13	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers	92.1	31
Mississippi State Bulldogs	33.7	25	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	66.3	30
Auburn Tigers	34.7	24	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	65.3	30
Alabama Crimson Tide	78.2	27	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	21.8	17
Mississippi Rebels	47.5	29	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	52.5	31
Hawaii Warriors	69.3	36	Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	30.7	28
Utah State Aggies	17.3	20	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	82.7	32
Tulane Green Wave	45.5	23	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	54.5	24
Air Force Falcons	55.0	24	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	45.0	22
Ball State Cardinals	5.0	12	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	95.0	47
Arkansas Razorbacks	49.5	32	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	50.5	33
Baylor Bears	64.4	34	Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats	35.6	28
Texas Tech Red Raiders	84.7	34	Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks	15.3	20
Texas Longhorns	87.1	30	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	12.9	15
North Texas Mean Green	14.9	27	Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	85.1	38
Rice Owls	20.8	26	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	79.2	37
North Carolina Tar Heels	75.2	32	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	24.8	25
Houston Cougars	84.2	37	Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners	15.8	25
Nevada Wolf Pack	5.0	21	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	95.0	43
Southern Methodist Mustangs	19.8	27	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	80.2	37
San Jose State Spartans	36.6	22	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	63.4	26
New Mexico State Aggies	39.6	19	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	60.4	22
Memphis Tigers	8.9	12	Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	91.1	30
UAB Blazers	23.8	24	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	76.2	34
Florida Atlantic Owls	41.1	22	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	58.9	26
Duke Blue Devils	62.4	29	Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers	37.6	26
Arkansas State Red Wolves	71.3	32	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	28.7	24

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game, including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.