Fantasy Football Out on a Limb: Volume 13

Happy Thanksgiving!

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.

I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things, up I’ll occasionally do some two-on-one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
Six points for rushing or receiving TD.
Four points for a passing TD.
One tenth of a point per yard for rushing or receiving.
Five hundreths of a point per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jeff Garcia (16.15) beat Donovan McNabb ( 3.65), WHICH I WON. 
Ryan Grant (8.6) beat Ronnie Brown (4.7), WHICH I WON.
Darren McFadden (17.2) beat Chris Johnson (6.1), WHICH I WON. 
Terrell Owens (27.3) beat Brandon Marshall, WHICH I WON.      
Calvin Johnson (12.6) beat Santana Moss (7.2), WHICH I LOST.     
Super Stetch: Peyton Hillis (15.6) beat Brian Westbrook (3.4), WHICH I WON.      

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0  
Overall:  5-1  

Season Record
Regular Picks:  38-22 (.633)
Super Stretch Picks:  5-6 (.455)
Overall:  43-28 (.606)

Quarterback
 
Matt Ryan over Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown a TD pass the past two weeks. San Diego’s porous pass D should be the cure. Cutler has 420 yards and one TD since throwing for 447 in Week 10 vs. Cleveland. Facing the Jets on the road won’t be his cure.

Running Backs
 
Chris Johnson over Clinton Portis
Portis bounced back in a big way last week against Seattle with 143 yards on 29 carries. This week, he faces the Giants though, and yards won’t come as easy. Chris Johnson has 118 yards the past three weeks. I’m guessing Detroit is what he’s thankful for this Thanksgiving.

 
Darren McFadden over Matt Forte
McFadden rushed for two TDs last week against Denver. Up next is Kansas City. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran for a couple more. Meanwhile, Forte faces Minnesota.  He’ll have to get his work in the passing attack because the Vikings don’t allow much on the ground. 

Wide Receiver
  
Antonio Bryant over T.J. Houshmandzadeh  
Bryant is having a nice little second half, averaging 76.4 yards per game over his past five with a couple of scores. Housh has been heavily targeted, with at least six receptions in eight of his last nine games.

Bryant has a much better matchup this week though. Tampa Bay goes up against New Orleans while Cincinnati has to face Baltimore.

 
Roy Williams over Dwayne Bowe
After T.O. begged for the ball last week, Romo granted his wish. Romo will share the wealth a little more on Thanksgiving as Dallas faces Seattle.

Trades during the season are rare enough in the NFL, but the fact that Roy was dealt from one Thanksgiving Day team is kind of neat. Poor Bowe won’t be thankful that Nnamdi Asomugha will be in his back pocket.   

SUPER STRETCH   
  
J.J. Arrington over Kevin Faulk
I’d be surprised if either of them scored this week, but they both will catch the ball out of the backfield while mixing in a few carries. Faulk will likely get more touches, but he is facing a tough Pittsburgh team. Arrington goes up against the other Pennsylvania team. You know the one that is a complete mess. I’ll step out and pick J.J. here.