Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Will Turnovers Kill Irish Bowl Hopes?

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are currently in a tough battle on the road against the Pittsburgh Panthers.

Notre Dame has been the better team on the field, but have two turnovers and a missed field goal. Their only score came on a 79-yard touchdown run from Jonas Gray.

That came in between two Kevin Harper Field goals from Pittsburgh, giving the Irish a 7-6 halftime lead.

After forcing a three-and-out, Notre Dame committed a roughing the punter penalty. The Panthers marched down the field and scored a touchdown. They missed the two-point conversion, so lead 12-7.

What’s Gone Wrong?

Pittsburgh has played well, but Notre Dame has beaten themselves. They have committed too many turnovers and bad penalties that are making the difference in this one.

This is a game that Notre Dame should be winning by at least 10 points. As it is, they are behind.

Notre Dame simply can't turn the ball over as often as they do. Also, while it wasn't a great call, a pass interference penalty led to a Pittsburgh field goal. Even if the call was bad, it came on a play where the defender never turned his head to the ball. At this point, defensive backs need to know that that will always be called.

A roughing the kicker penalty extended a drive that gave Pittsburgh the go-ahead touchdown. Without that penalty, Notre Dame would have had excellent field position.

What’s at Stake?

If Notre Dame doesn't win this game, they won't make a BCS Bowl. It doesn't matter if they flatten their remaining opponents, including Stanford and USC. That will be three losses, which even for Notre Dame, is a BCS black flag.

Those chances seem remote right now, but Notre Dame running the table would mean that they go 10-2 and beat a few quality opponents on the way.

Also, if Notre Dame loses, they are a 1-3 team. On paper, they would still be in okay position to make a regular bowl game. But on paper, they should be 4-0 or at worst 3-1 after they play the Panthers.

Upset Potential: 5/10

As bad as Notre Dame has been thus far, they are only losing by five points and moving the ball well. If they cut the stupid mistakes, they should still win this game and win pretty easily.

The reason it's not lower than five is that these mistakes have cost Notre Dame all season. Even their convincing win against Michigan State was filled with sloppy play.

This is something that they theoretically should haven't had a problem tightening up. But you can't be too confident when it's been a consistent problem for four weeks.

How Will Voter’s React?

If Notre Dame loses, don't expect to see them in the polls for a while. Right now, they are unranked, but still getting consideration.

Conversely, if Pitt wins, they will be 3-1. That's good enough to at least earn consideration

Will Notre Dame Come Back?

I have to say that they will. They are the more talented team and only down by five points. But the more mistakes they make, the more I doubt it.

Who Benefits Most from Notre Dame's Collapse?

Notre Dame bashers mostly. Also, teams from big conferences. The six BCS conferences are all guaranteed one spot in a BCS Bowl Game.

There are ten spots to be had, leaving four at-large bids. If Notre Dame qualifies, they take an at-large bid. Boise State does the same thing. So, those spots are cut.

If Notre Dame can't qualify for a BCS game, a spot is opened.