Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last-Minute Spread and Predictions

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in this very important NFC South showdown. Atlanta is looking for their first road win this season, whereas the Bucs are hoping to get their first home win. 

Josh Freeman vs. Matt Ryan is already shaping up to be a very fun rivalry to watch, and this Sunday won't disappoint. Both teams are a step behind the New Orleans Saints at the moment, but with a win this weekend they'll be headed in the right direction. 

Starting off 1-0 in the NFC South is just what both teams need, but obviously somebody has to be the one to lose. Ryan needs to play better on the road, and Freeman needs to play better period. 

With that said, let's dig into some specifics of this great NFC South matchup.

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL 

When: Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:15 p.m. ET

Watch: FOX

Over/Under

According to bodog.com, the over/under for this matchup is at 46. Take the over here because both teams will score in the upper 20s. Neither defense is superb enough to shut down the other, and both offenses are too talented not to put up three to four touchdowns and a few field goals. 

Spread

The Bucs are favored at -1, which is too close for me. Both times they met last year it was a close game, but it's not going to be that close. I think the Falcons win outright, but I'd stay away from this bet because the game could go either way. 

Key Injuries 

The Falcons have a few stars listed as questionable for Week 3:

John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux, Ray Edwards, Kelvin Hayden and Corey Peters.

Matt Ryan and Roddy White are listed as probable, but they will definitely play.

In fact, all of these players should play, and the only reason they missed a portion of practice this week was precautionary. 

For the Bucs, Kellen Winslow has a knee injury and was limited in practice this week. However, he is listed as probable and I would be surprised if he didn't play on Sunday. 

Fantasy Big Plays 

Michael Turner and LeGarrette Blount are solid plays on Sunday as both teams will rely on the run to set up the pass. One will rush for over 100 yards, but both will score at least one touchdown.

A sleeper start in this game would be Bucs wide receiver Mike Williams since the Falcons secondary is subpar at best.

Williams isn't known by a lot of folks, and most fantasy players that own him usually have him on the bench or occasionally as the flex player. He's a solid start on Sunday in a flex spot or your wide receiver slot.  

I do expect Roddy White to bounce back, but I wouldn't start Matt Ryan this weekend. He's struggled quite a bit this year, and I don't see him throwing another four touchdowns again. 

Keys to Atlanta Win 

The Falcons need to unleash this explosive offense we heard so much about, but the key for a victory on Sunday will be a balanced attack.

Fans would like to see some big plays, but it's not necessary for a win. They need to let Turner get a solid number of carries, and then the pass will open up.

The secondary is going to let big plays happen, which is why another key for the Falcons is to get consistent pressure on Freeman. 

Keys to Tampa Bay Win 

The Bucs have to start strong because beginning the game at a sluggish pace will come back to haunt them.

Freeman did a great job of leading the Bucs to a comeback win in Week 2, but the same won't happen against Atlanta because the Falcons will get too far ahead in the early going if the Bucs aren't prepared. 

Blount did a great job of turning it back around after an awful Week 1, and he will have another solid game against the Falcons.

If he finds a rhythm, the Bucs need to keep feeding him because the Falcons secondary will start focusing on the run a little too much, which will result in big pass plays. 

Prediction 

The Bucs are the favorite because they're at home, but the Falcons are the better team. Both teams have decent defensive units, but they won't be making very many big stops. 

This game is all about offense and the Falcons have the better playmakers. Ryan will deliver in crunch time and further prove that he is a very clutch quarterback. He'll led them on an impressive drive late in the game and Matt Bryant kicks the game winning field goal.

Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 24