NFL Power Rankings: Which Teams Are Not as Good as Their Record?

When I compile my weekly power rankings, I consider much more than the teams' win-loss record. I take into account the context in which those games were won or lost, the expectations of each team going into both the season and the previous week's game and how the last game will inform the ones that follow.

This is a main reason why, heading into Week 3, a 2-0 team is still in the bottom half, and another 1-1 team hasn't risen from the bottom 10.

That first team is the Washington Redskins. They have won both of their games—against the New York Giants in Week 1 and the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2—by facing teams with dismal defenses, and beat the Cardinals by a single point after being down by eight heading into the fourth quarter.

Indeed, Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman is playing better than anyone had anticipated going into the season, but against two teams with better defenses, it is unlikely Washington would be entering Week 3 undefeated.

Until they face, and dispatch, a more formidable opponent, I do not believe them to be serious playoff contenders this season.

One team that has already done this is the Jacksonville Jaguars, but still they languish in the bottom 10 of my power rankings heading into Week 3.

In Week 1, they defeated a Tennessee Titans squad that went on to defeat the fearsome Baltimore Ravens in Week 2.

Much of the Jaguars' win had to do with Titans running back Chris Johnson being a non-factor. Indeed, the Jaguars did have a semblance of a decent run defense, holding both the Titans to just 43 net rushing yards.

This trend reversed this week against the Jets, however; they allowed 101 net rushing yards and a touchdown from the New York ground game.

That improved defense from Week 1 devolved into a puddle of incompetence that allowed the Jets two passing touchdowns and three field goals on top of the one run in by Shonn Greene and left the Jaguars embarrassed in a 32-3 loss.

Further, it was made clear this week that the Jaguars offense is dismal. The Jets defense had four interceptions on Jacksonville quarterback Luke McCown (later benched for rookie Blaine Gabbert) and forced a safety. Jacksonville only managed a field goal, scored in the first quarter.

The Jaguars should count themselves lucky that they have that one win, because otherwise, they are on the path to have no further victories this season. It also keeps them from the very bottom of my power rankings, at least for this week.

NFL Power Rankings, Week 3*

1. New England Patriots
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. New Orleans Saints
5. New York Jets
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Houston Texans
8. Detroit Lions
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. San Diego Chargers
11. Atlanta Falcons
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Chicago Bears
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15. Buffalo Bills
16. Washington Redskins
17. San Francisco 49ers
18. Miami Dolphins
19. Arizona Cardinals
20. Cleveland Browns
21. Cincinnati Bengals
22. Oakland Raiders
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Carolina Panthers
25. Minnesota Vikings
26. Denver Broncos
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Indianapolis Colts
30. Seattle Seahawks

*These rankings do not include the New York Giants and St. Louis Rams, who play tonight. Rankings will be updated accordingly.