College Football Week 4: Picks and Predictions

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma State at Texas A&M

You might as well enjoy these Big 12 matchups while you can. Is it just me or does the Pac-12 add three more teams each weekend?

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M pits two of the top 20 scoring teams in the nation against each other.

Led by quarterback Brandon Weeden (384.7 pass yards per game, eight TDs and six INTs) and Justin Blackmon (109.7 receiving yards per game, three TDs), the Cowboys are averaging 52.3 points per game (third in nation). Their defense is a little suspect though, allowing 27.0 ppg. Tulsa managed 33 points against OSU this past weekend.

Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman may be six years removed from the "Lambeau leap" and traded the frozen tundra for the heat and humidity of College Station, but his offense-first mentality remains. The Aggies are averaging 41.5 points per game (17th in nation).

The Aggies lost on a last-second field goal to the Cowboys in the 2010 meeting. Former quarterback, Jerrod Johnson threw four interceptions in that game. This season it's Ryan Tannehill behind center. The former wide receiver replaced Johnson at quarterback midway through last season and finished 2010 with 1638 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games.

The WhatIfSports.com college football simulation engine "played" the Aggies and Cowboys 101 times and it's OSU winning 55.4 percent of the time by an average score of 38-35.

Arkansas at Alabama

The two SEC West foes meet a week after two differing outcomes in contests against members of the Sun Belt.

The Crimson Tide held the Mean Green of North Texas to 169 total yards in a 41-0 shutout.

The Razorbacks, on the other hand, had issues putting Troy to sleep in the second half. In fact, the Trojans outgained Arkansas 457-454. Bobby Petrino said in his post game press conference that he was frustrated with how the offense sputtered in 3rd and 4th quarters and allowed Troy to rally back.

Arkansas is adjusting to life without Ryan Mallett and the growing pains that come with it. Junior quarterback Tyler Wilson was in coach Petrino's crosshairs for much of that second half and took the brunt of his rage. Wilson has thrown for 822 yards with five touchdowns and two picks in the first three games of the season.

Alabama will counter the Arkansas passing game with their backfield workhorse, Trent Richardson. The big guy is averaging 6.3 yards per rush with eight trips to the end zone in 'Bama's first three games.

Nick Saban's team ranks second in the nation in points allowed with six. They allowed seven to Kent State, 11 to Penn State and as previously mentioned shutout North Texas.

The WhatIfSports.com college football simulation engine "played" Arkansas and Alabama 101 times and it's the Crimson Tide winning 70.4 percent of the time by an average score of 31-24.

College Football Week 4
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Massachusetts Minutemen	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	95.0	46
Kansas State Wildcats	31.7	22	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	68.3	28
Tulane Green Wave	32.7	24	Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils	67.3	29
Temple Owls	32.7	23	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	67.3	30
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	59.4	30	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	40.6	26
North Carolina Tar Heels	64.4	26	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	35.6	22
Florida State Seminoles	70.3	30	Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers	29.7	23
UTEP Miners	5.0	14	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	95.0	37
Toledo Rockets	41.6	26	Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange	58.4	29
North Carolina State Wolfpack	47.5	30	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	52.5	31
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	49.5	27	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	50.5	28
LSU Tigers	62.4	26	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	37.6	21
Ohio Bobcats	64.4	26	Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	35.6	21
Eastern Michigan Eagles	5.0	9	Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	95.0	42
North Dakota State Bison	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	95.0	39
South Dakota Coyotes	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers	95.0	66
Central Michigan Chippewas	7.9	19	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	92.1	35
Western Michigan Broncos	25.2	23	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	74.8	30
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	27.2	21	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	72.8	29
Colorado Buffaloes	32.2	21	Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	67.8	28
San Diego State Aztecs	42.6	30	Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines	57.4	32
South Alabama Jaguars	5.5	8	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	95.5	36
Cal Poly Mustangs	5.0	9	Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	95.0	53
Virginia Military Keydets	6.9	8	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	93.1	30
Bowling Green Falcons	26.2	17	Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks	73.8	25
Connecticut Huskies	76.2	26	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	23.8	16
Army Black Knights	81.2	26	Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals	18.8	13
California Golden Bears	49.5	22	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	50.5	23
UCLA Bruins	55.0	25	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	45.0	24
USC Trojans	61.9	31	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	38.1	26
Oregon Ducks	83.2	36	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	16.8	23
Florida Atlantic Owls	5.5	12	Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers	95.5	37
Vanderbilt Commodores	10.9	16	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	89.1	34
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	21.8	22	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	78.2	35
Arkansas Razorbacks	29.7	24	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	70.3	31
Florida Gators	77.2	26	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	22.8	16
Georgia Bulldogs	91.1	38	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	8.9	20
UC Davis Aggies	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	95.0	53
New Mexico State Aggies	28.2	18	Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans	71.8	25
Colorado State Rams	40.6	25	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	59.4	30
Fresno State Bulldogs	84.2	32	Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals	15.8	20
UCF Knights	49.5	28	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	50.5	29
Rice Owls	10.9	22	Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears	89.1	41
Missouri Tigers	22.8	24	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	77.2	33
Nevada Wolf Pack	38.6	26	Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders	61.4	29
Oklahoma State Cowboys	55.4	38	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	44.6	35
Georgia State Panthers	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars	95.0	53
UAB Blazers	15.8	23	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	84.2	35
Virginia Tech Hokies	93.1	36	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	6.9	14
Southern Methodist Mustangs	95.0	45	Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers	5.0	11
Southern Utah Thunderbirds	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	95.0	33
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	5.0	26	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	95.0	46
Portland State Vikings	5.0	8	Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	63
Tennessee State Tigers	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	95.0	49
Sam Houston State Bearkats	7.9	10	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	92.1	30
Nebraska Cornhuskers	95.0	34	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	5.0	8
Central Arkansas Bears	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	95.0	43
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	17.8	19	Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers	82.2	31
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	39.6	26	Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans	60.4	30
Indiana Hoosiers	70.3	31	Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green	29.7	25