Horse Racing: Simulcast Musings for Nov. 24

Some races we’ve come across in our handicapping:

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK

RACE 4--

This is a subpar group of horses at a demanding distance to boot—ergo no lock / surprise possible / demand odds value.

We ourselves will pass the race—cannot eliminate for certain any of the top three contenders. If you insist on betting this race, we would recommend only Exactas or serial Pik bets.

5[4-1]—is doing well form cycle-wise, but may just end up repeating last race—clear on the lead but fading late. It’s dangerous to blithely dismiss a horse alone on the lead early though…but depending on posttime odds(low), the only way to play this horse may be hooked in exotics with others.

7[8-1]—the rider change to Cotto signals a well-meant try, and more importantly—a  likely attempt at the front early. It may be able to duel No. 5 to exhaustion, or lay in close attendance to try and inherit the lead upon No. 5’s expected late fade. It’s not a likely win candidate, but more of a lower in the money slot…but is still dangerous for the top spot as the one laying in closest attendance to the projected pacesetter.

4[8-5]—AND..

8[5-2]—are both obvious win contenders—both evenly matched…all depends on which one gets the better trip. Expect very poor odds from both.

1[10-1]-if the layoff helped, it can take it all with its top career number.

3[20-1]-contender for lower slot only…needs a fast pace up front, and doesn’t look like that will occur today. Odds will not hurt though….

The rest look outmatched:

6[15-1]-just looking at its naked pp’s, without adjusted figs—makes this entrant intriguing. However, even on the races where it raced forwardly early, the pace was abysmally slow. This horse projects 20-30 lengths back early

2[30-1]- please….

EDIT: winner 5 shortened stride(and bore out) late, but today, NO ONE ELSE was doing any significant running…even the second place finisher 4, who was dead last early, NEVER threatened (btw offered atrocious value, along with 8). Hopefully you audibled based on the odds—the winner, as third ML fave, projected to pay $7-9…and instead was let go at 6½-1.
7 was softened up enough early to allow 6 to sneak into third…the only surprise.

CRC CALDER RACE COURSE

RACE 6

Don’t get married to the obvious contenders here—NONE of these have run to par—some longshots have an outstanding chance here:

8[10-1]---actually has top number—extracted internal sprint figure from route…IF it can get a good trip from that outside post AND not lag far back early, it has a great chance at a price.

12[10-1]--second best number….same potential negatives as 8.

9[12-1]—-another live horse at a price—with expected improvement second off the layoff AND a trouble-free trip…

3[20-1]—-this is a type of horse that when it clicks will offer a monster mutuel: has endured racing trouble often AND is usually not perservered w/ late—a trouble-free trip combined w/ finding itself within striking range…

10[6-1]—-third best number…MUST get a trouble-free trip.

2[4-1]----needs to top career best fig to compete here…odds will offer poor value…hook it with price contenders if you must play it.

4[6-1]----we would LOVE to see this horse SENT EARLY…has the ability to clear everyone early….

7[20-1]---hasn’t shown anything, BUT—that has been in two races only…gets a positive jock switch.,.worth including in exotics at a juicy price.

5 & 6---- don’t have anything to recommend them….at least the former has better value at 15-1 vs 6-1 Morning Line…

11[3-1]---mediocre fig, bad post and POOR value…ELIMINATE it from consideration…We will LAY this pig at an exchange.

EDIT:

Finishing order: 12-9-2-10

$2 Trifecta
12-9-2
$3782.80

Enough said.

RACE 9

The problem with backing someone to win here strongly is that the early pace looks uncertain/chaotic…at this short distance, anyone lucky enough to find itself on the front will likely stay there all the way.

1[3-1]----Our top choice…could decimate this field. Only two negatives abound—the unsettled early pace dilemma, and having entrymate guarantees low odds…

11[12-1]--improving horse at a very nice price…must NOT be left out of your exotics.

10[30-1]-VERY, VERY dangerous horse to discard at monster odds!!! Its 2 career races, although dismal-looking, could’ve been only public workouts. This horse has the second-fastest finishing time…any kind of a decent start + early push may put it within striking range—notice how last start it broke well BUT was taken back…

9[6-1]----capable of taking them wire to wire ‘on its best day’…and that’s just the issue: we can’t tell for sure if its form cycle is on the way down OR it just needs a lone / unpressured lead…

6[10-1]---we think its form cycle may be on the way down…on the other hand will offer decent value…

4[15-1]---can get a LOWER slot at a price…

7[8-1]----horse with some gate issues getting a positive switch to an alert gate jock…

5[5-2]----chance at a piece of the purse….poor value as ML fave…may be an absolute tossout depending on (low) posttime odds

2-Entry- not much to recommend it, BUT it’s not bad to get two horses for 1 at a monster price…there are much worse bets in horse racing…