Chargers vs. Patriots: Over/Under, Spread, Final Predictions, TV Info and More

There may not be a better regular season matchup than the Week 2 tilt between the San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots. At the very least, this game will feature a lot of points scored and two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Chargers had a rather sluggish start to the season last week against Minnesota, but they were able to walk away from the game victorious. Some of the flaws that plagued this team last season—namely special teams—still looked sketchy, though.

The Patriots started this season where they left off last season, at least in the regular season, because their offense was unstoppable against the Dolphins. Tom Brady threw for over 500 yards and four touchdown passes. It was a brilliant performance from a player who seems to get better with age.

Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts

When: Today at 4:15 p.m. EST

Watch: CBS (Local Affiliates); DirecTV Channel 717

Over/Under: 54.5

That is a high number by regular standards, but considering the two offenses playing in this game I believe that number is too low. The Patriots can score on anyone, and the Chargers are not exactly lacking for talent on offense. I would take the over and feel very confident that these two teams will breeze by that number.

Spread: New England (-7)

That number is way too high, especially considering how evenly matched these two teams are. Normally west coast teams are at a disadvantage traveling to the east coast, but since the game has a 4:15 start time everything works out perfectly for the Chargers. Even if you think the Patriots are going to win, bet on the Chargers to cover the spread.

Key Injuries

San Diego will be without starting defensive end Luis Castillo after he underwent surgery to repair a fractured tibia. Fullback Mike Tolbert, who scored three touchdowns last week, is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to play on Sunday.

New England only has one player out for this game, but he is an important part of the offense: starting center Dan Koppen, who broke his ankle on Monday night and will be out for 6-to-10 weeks.

Fantasy Big Plays

At the risk of sounding obvious, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are absolute must-starts if you are fortunate enough to have them on your fantasy team. The Chargers defense is solid, but there is no one that Brady can’t slowly and methodically dissect over the course of 60 minutes. The Patriots defense is not strong, and Rivers has his share of playmakers on the outside to throw for big yards in this game.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is likely going to be a fantasy bust this season because the team is not going to run the ball as much as they did last season, and when they run the ball Danny Woodhead will get the bulk of the carries.

Keys to San Diego Victory

Offensively, this team has to be more efficient running the ball than they were last week against Minnesota. Mike Tolbert is not a speed runner, but he has the strength to run defenders over. Philip Rivers can’t be afraid to take chances, not that he ever has been before, down the field against a weak Patriots secondary.

The best way to stop the Patriots offense is to put pressure on Tom Brady and force him to get rid of the ball in a hurry. The Dolphins put no pressure on him last week and he picked them apart. The Chargers pass rush is much better than the Dolphins, and the Patriots offensive line is missing a key cog in Dan Koppen, so Brady should be running around a bit more this week than he did last week.

Keys to New England Victory

The Patriots will have to implement more running plays into the offense this week because they won’t have the same success throwing the ball that they did last week. The Chargers are so deep on defense that the Patriots have to be effective running and throwing the ball if they want to win.

The defensive line is going to have to put pressure on Philip Rivers because the secondary is not good enough to match up with Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates all game long. Lost in the shuffle of Tom Brady’s 500-yard performance is the fact that the defense gave up over 400 yards passing to Chad Henne. If they do that this week, the Chargers will score at least 40 points.

Prediction

This is a pick ‘em game between two of the best teams in the NFL. When you have a game this evenly matched, you have to go with the home team.

Patriots 38, Chargers 34