Penn State Bowl Scenarios

Penn State controls their own destiny when it comes to figuring out the bowl scenarios. If the Nittany Lions win Saturday against Michigan State, then book your trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl! If Penn State loses, let the fun begin. The top three Big Ten affiliations in the bowl system will depend on how the Penn State-Michigan State and Ohio State-Michigan games pan out.

The grand prize in the Big Ten is a trip to the Rose Bowl, barring a BCS Championship match-up. So let us analyze that real quickly.

• If Penn State wins, they go to the Rose Bowl.
• If Michigan State AND Ohio State win, Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl.
• If Michigan State wins AND Ohio State loses, Michigan State goes to the Rose Bowl.

For Penn State this weekend's game is a must win in order to represent the Big Ten in Pasadena. If Penn State does lose to the Spartans then where would they go? A loss would ensure they drop out of the BCS contention for an at-large invitation. Losing on Saturday could drop the Nittany Lions to third place in the Big Ten, sending them packing for the Outback Bowl. A trip to the Capital One Bowl is also likely in the event of a loss. The destination depends on how Ohio State does. Let us assume (for a minute) that Michigan State beats Penn State.

• If Ohio State wins, then Penn State would go to the Outback Bowl. Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State would go to the Capital One Bowl.
• If Michigan beats Ohio State then Penn State would go to the Capital One Bowl and Ohio State would go to the Outback Bowl.

Ohio State enters the final week of the regular season ranked #10 in the BCS. A loss would drop them from an at-large bid to the BCS but the Buckeyes could sneak in to a BCS at large berth with a win. If Penn State and Ohio State both win then Penn State would go to the Rose Bowl. Ohio State can move up the BCS ladder with losses by Utah, Boise State, Florida, and Oklahoma, USC, and possibly Texas. Should any (most) of those teams lose the Buckeyes could be considered for a BCS game. Ohio State's best shot at a BCS game though seems to be with a trip to the Rose Bowl (with a PSU loss).

So there you have it. Penn State will be playing on New Year's Day, but which one? That friends, is the question that will be answered on Saturday. There is also the "Penn State Sneaks Into the BCS Championship" scenario, but that seems a little more far fetched after last weekend's games.

Stewart Mandel has his take on the entire bowl picture today over at Sports Illustrated.