Rafael Nadal: Trip Back to US Open Final Well Within Rafa's Reach

Rafael Nadal ended up with a pretty good draw in the US Open.

As the No. 2 seed, there was no way that he would meet No. 1 Novak Djokovic before the finals. But ending up on the same side of the draw as Andy Murray and not Roger Federer was a nice break.

Now, that's not to say that Nadal couldn't beat Federer. Quite the opposite, Nadal has a strong history against Federer, especially in recent years.

I'm also not saying that Andy Murray can't win. Indeed, Murray is playing strong tennis right now and is showing resiliency at the US Open that we haven't previously seen in him.

Still, his history in grand slams is not pretty, particularly when he meets Nadal, Federer or Novak Djokovic.

Granted, he's beaten Nadal a few times along the way to finals or semifinals appearances, but he generally shows terrible body language when he gets down.

Murray has a lot of talent, but he needs to believe that he can win a Grand Slam. Until he shows that, I really can't pick him.

Yes, that means that I'll be wrong on him until he finally does win that Grand Slam title (assuming that he does). Still, the belief just doesn't seem to be there.

Until it is, I'll take Nadal any day over Murray.

But Murray's question marks aren't the only factors to consider.

As unimpressive as his wins appeared to be, Nadal never dropped a set. Now, as the competition is getting tougher, Nadal is getting more dominant.

The fact is that while Murray is obviously very talented, Nadal is just a better player. Yes, that's evened up a little bit on the hard court, but Nadal is still much better.

Now, his confidence and game appear to be back. No, 2011 hasn’t been Nadal’s greatest year, but he’s finding the game that we’ve seen in past seasons from him.

I will say that I think the odd scheduling will end up hurting him. Not against Murray, as Murray is dealing with the same oddities. But a finals match against Djokovic or Federer would seem to favor either of them, as they will be significantly better rested.

But if we’re looking at getting to the finals, Nadal is a pretty clear favorite to beat Murray.

I am calling for a four-set win from Nadal, who will then lose the final.