NFL Picks Week 1: Will Texans Cover Against Peyton Manning-Less Colts?

Peyton Manning's streak of consecutive starts is officially over. Round up the usual suspects.

Or the Indianapolis Colts can just start Kerry Collins in their opener at the Houston Texans on Sunday. There's not much else they can do, really.

Naturally, that's an advantage for the Texans. That must be why the odds (per Covers.com) have the Texans favored to beat the Colts by a whopping nine points.

Needless to say, that's a huge spread. Huge enough to give one second thoughts, anyway. Sure, the Texans are heading into the season with plenty of positive buzz, but nine points?

Can the Texans cover the spread? Sure they can, they have the kind of offense that can score points in bunches, and you have to figure that the Colts aren't going to score many points behind Collins.

However, the thing to worry about here is the health of Texans running back Arian Foster. He's got a hamstring problem, and NFL.com reported on Thursday night that Texans coach Gary Kubiak said Foster could very well be a game-time decision come Sunday.

If Foster is unable to go, it's entirely conceivable that the Texans just aren't going to be able to run the ball as well. Because the Colts are not know for their run defense, that's an advantage that will go "poof."

If so, the pressure to score points will fall on Matt Schaub and, by extension, Andre Johnson. The Texans could ask for worse fates, of course, as the two of them form one of the most lethal combinations in the NFL. The Colts know that all too well, especially when you consider the fact Johnson burned them for seven catches, 106 yards and a touchdown in their last meeting.

But is this connection alone worth an extra nine points? I'm not so sure. In fact, I think it's just as likely that the Texans will need Schaub and Johnson to bail them out as it is for them to pad the team’s lead.

Basically, it boils down to this: If Foster is able to play, I think the Texans are going to have enough punch to cover the spread. If they don't have Foster, I think it's a little too risky to assume they're going to cover.

Prediction: Texans win it 28-21. Close, but not enough.