NFL Picks Week 1: Drew Brees' Saints, Cam Newton's Panthers Undervalued?

NFL. Week 1. It's here.

What does that mean? Time for my Week 1 NFL Picks!

I'll be picking games every week against the spread, trying to prove that my 91-73 (.555 percent) record last year was just the start of a glorious career. So whether you want to see my fantastic picks or make fun of me when I inevitably fail, I urge you to read on.

This week, it seems like oddsmakers are writing off Cam Newton, forgetting who Drew Brees is and putting too much faith into Jay Cutler.

New Orleans Saints (+4.5) over Green Bay Packers

What were the Saints' weaknesses last year, you ask?

Rushing defense, rushing offense and interceptions by Brees.

They signed Aubrayo Franklin from San Francisco, added Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles, got Pierre Thomas back from injury and as long as Brees' interception rate isn't completely out of whack again, their weaknesses are virtually shored up. They're still going to be able to throw, put up points and stop the pass.

I know Rodgers and the Pack are good (actually great), but a team that deserves to be every bit as much of a Super Bowl favorite does not deserve to be a 4.5 point underdog. This is a shame.

Prediction: Saints 27, Packers 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) over Baltimore Ravens

A Steelers-Ravens game is almost a guarantee to be won by three points or less. And I don't care that the under is 36, take the under.

In a game this close, I'll go with the better clutch quarterback. Or the one more likely to win in a bar fight. Or maybe the one most likely to be found hanging around your college's best-looking sorority house.

Fortunately, the answer is Big Ben Roethlisberger to all of the above, so easy pick here.

Prediction: Steelers 16, Ravens 13

Detroit Lions (+1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I'm seriously in love with Jahvid Best. If you aren't, either you're dumb, haven't watched this, or you realize he is made of Swarovski crystal.

Oh yeah, and ditto for Matt Stafford. And Calvin Johnson (minus the durability issues).

Seriously, the Lions have three of the most talented athletes at their positions on offense (not to mention Ndamukong Suh on defense). So, what's not to like.

I mean, I love Josh Freeman, but the Bucs aren't ready.

2011 (barring injury), is the year of the Lions. Ride them all year long.

Prediction: Lions 34, Bucs 20

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Chicago Bears

There have been a few "Jay Cutler is in extra-super-good shape and superdy-duperdy motivated" stories out there, but I'm not buying it until I see it.

He's a whiny cry-baby for all I care, and I'll take a guy named Matty Ice (the guy on the better team) over Cutler any day of the week.

Prediction: Falcons 31, Bears 10

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams

I really do like the Rams and Sam Bradford and I hate the notion of a "dream team," but come on, Vegas.

You really think the team that couldn't win the NFC West last year and is expected to have Brandon Gibson as its No. 1 wideout, can compete with the Eagles and their new additions?

I don't.

And Michael Vick!!!!! OMG!!!! He does things you've never seen man do on a gridiron!!!!

Blowout City, St. Louis.

Prediction: Eagles 38, Rams 17

Cleveland Browns (-7) over Cincinnati Bengals

I hate to pick a team as boring as the Browns to win by more than seven points, because it seems like they can't blow a team out.

But they're playing against Andy Dalton. He has red hair. Nobody succeeds in sports with red hair.*

*Except Shaun White, the Jackie Robinson of Red-Headed Snowboarders

Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 14

New York Giants (-3) over Washington Redskins

The Redskins suck. They're starting Rex Grossman.

The Giants have a lot of injuries and may not be great, but they don't suck. And they're certainly not starting Rex Grossman.

Prediction: Giants 31, Redskins 14

Carolina Panthers (+7) over Arizona Cardinals

No, I don't think Cam Newton is going to win the NFL MVP this year. But I do think he'll be an upgrade over the revolving pile of muck that dropped back for Carolina last year.

And realize this: the Panthers have talent.

They have DeAngelo Williams, Steve Smith and a whole lot to work with on defense. They're not a playoff team, but they're not 2-14 bad.

And the Cardinals, led by a 27-year old with a career 7 TD: 7 INT ratio (or 300:0, if you ask his many irrational supporters), aren't that good.

This should be a close, hard-fought game, so I'll take the points.

Prediction: Cardinals 21, Panthers 16

San Francisco 49ers (-6) over Seattle Seahawks

I'll take super-competive, tough guy Jim Harbaugh over overzealous fanboy Pete Carroll any day.

Even if Alex Smith is his quarterback.

Prediction: 49ers 21, Seahawks 14

San Diego Chargers (-9) over Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers have receivers now.

Not Seyi Ajirotutu or D.J. Mbenga or whoever that was lining up for them last year. They're going to score points. Lots of them.

Prediction: Chargers 33, Vikings 20

New York Jets (-5) over Cowboys

Is this a joke?

Mark Sanchez, the best quarterback in NFL History, with more potential than ANYONE, is favored to beat the COWBOYS by only 5 points!

I'm getting a ticket to Vegas and betting the house on this one.

It's a sure thing!*

Prediction: Jets 16,000,000, Cowboys 0

*Disclaimer: I'm a die-hard Jets fan. None of the above statements contains any actual truths. In fact, the Jets seem overvalued as 5-point favorites. That is all.

New England Patriots (-7) over Miami Dolphins

Blowout.

Prediction: Patriots 44, Dolphins 14

Oakland Raiders (+3) over Denver Broncos

Darren McFadden is going to have a field day against the Broncos run-defense.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Broncos 20

Notes

The Bills-Chiefs, Colts-Texans and Titans-Jaguars games all don't currently have lines (via Bodog) due to the Cassel/Manning injuries and David Garrard's release.

If I were picking straight up, I'd have to lean towards the Chiefs, Texans and Jags.

Happy Week 1 everybody. And come back next week to make fun of how poorly I did.