NFL Odds Week 1: Handicapping the 2 Toughest Games in Week 1

It’s never an exact science.

When betting on NFL spreads, there is never an easy way to figure why a certain team will cover the spread. That’s why Las Vegas makes millions of dollars on suckers like us.

Picking with a spread is hard enough—when it involves the two hardest games of the week, it's that much harder. 

Here is one man’s attempt to sift through the nonsense and determine who is the favorite in the hardest games of the week to pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 @ Baltimore Ravens

In what’s turning into the best rivalry in the NFL, a Super Bowl team from a year ago is not favored in Week 1.

That’s because the rugged Ravens defense is at home.

Sure, the unit isn’t getting any younger and their window for a championship is closing, but they have done a good enough job drafting young guys that fit into their schemes without missing a beat in terms of speed and size.

The same thing can be said for the Steelers D.

The Ravens offense got much better with the addition of two speedy receivers in Lee Evans and Torrey Smith. They can now stretch the field and open up holes for Anquan Boldin over the middle.

The Steelers look like a team that will also be airing it out with burners Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders running the sidelines.

The difference will be who can run the ball. It’s the catalyst to get both offenses in a rhythm.

I favor Ray Rice over Rashard Mendenhall in this matchup, which will ultimately be the difference. He is more consistent, faster and less likely to fumble.

Rice makes the game-breaking play that seals a three-point win for the Ravens.

Oakland Raiders +3 @ Denver Broncos

This game features two new head coaches and plenty of question marks.

Will the Broncos revert to their old ways of a run-first team under John Fox? Or will they let Kyle Orton stretch the field like last year?

The Raiders lost star corner Nnamdi Asomugha and enter the season with big holes in the secondary. Considering they have a terrific linebacking corps, it’s hard to predict how the defense will perform in Week 1.

The horrid Broncos defense and the lackluster Raiders offense cancel each other out, which leaves this game up to special teams.

Whoever gets the momentum-changing play on special teams will emerge victorious.

In front of a sold-out Monday night crowd at Invesco, I’m going with the Broncos.