WhatIfSports College Football Week 13 Predictions

Week 13 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

November 17, 2008

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, are located here.

If you want to take WhatIfSports' weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook, or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Game of the Week: No. 2 Texas Tech 35 @ No. 3 Oklahoma 41

This is not just a game between two top three teams—it is the game could throw a wrench into everything. With the Big 12 South champion likely making the national championship, many may call this the de facto national semifinal, but three teams could benefit.

In the simulations, Oklahoma uses home field advantage and its lack of exploitable weaknesses to sneak by Texas Tech 59.4 percent of the time and by less than a touchdown at 41-35 on average. If that is the case and OU wins by a small margin in a close game, our guess would be that Texas would benefit enough in the polls based on the "lesser loss" approach.

My personal opinion would be that Oklahoma, which has destroyed two other teams that could play in BCS games in Cincinnati and TCU, is most deserving of the "Big 12 South championship."

My professional opinion (i.e. what the computer would say) is that, if the outcome is exactly what we predict, Oklahoma would likely be slightly ahead of Texas Tech and then Texas in our power rankings (probably No. 2 behind Florida). The other 40.6 percent of the time, we don't have to worry...this week at least.

Other Notable Games in Week 13

It almost seems like we could include every game (not involving Florida or Wisconsin) here.

In the rivalry games, No. 12 Ohio State routs Michigan 95 percent of the time by an average score of 33-8, No. 14 Utah wins a classic Holy War 58.7 percent of the time against No. 15 BYU by an average of 28-24, and No. 21 UNC could use any QB and win at NC State 95 percent of the time by an average of 34-9.

In a thriller, 0-10 Washington gets its first victory 66.7 percent of the time at 1-10 Washington State by an average score of 20-17, and in that huge No. 1 Florida/Citadel rivalry, the Gators roll 77-3 (our biggest projected margin of the season).

In other games that will have a profound impact on the BCS (non-ACC edition because we don't want to list all of them), No. 6 Penn State has no problem with Michigan State, emerging victorious 95 percent of the time by a score of 37-8, and No. 10 Boise State plays a tough game against Nevada, winning 68.5 percent of its games by a close score of 29-24.

No. 17 Oregon State plays a similar game on the road at Arizona, winning 69.4 percent of the time by a score of 26-21 and, most importantly, the No. 20 Cincinnati Bearcats have no problem with Pitt as they roll to the biggest win in school history 73.0 percent of the time and by a score of 27-18.

Week 13 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
NC St. @ North Carolina	95	9-34
Cal Poly @ Wisconsin	95	4-54
Michigan @ Ohio State	95	8-33
Michigan State @ Penn State	95	8-37
Tulane @ Tulsa	95	21-48
Syracuse @ Notre Dame	95	9-31
Citadel @ Florida	95	3-77
North Texas @ Mid Tenn	89.6	12-29
Idaho @ Hawaii	89	14-32
Army @ Rutgers	87.8	13-31
UTEP @ Houston	85.5	24-40
Miami (OH) @ Toledo	83	13-27
Marshall @ Rice	81.8	20-33
Stanford @ California	81.5	14-28
LA-Monroe @ Fla. Int.	80.9	14-28
UCF @ Memphis	77.1	12-23
Miami (FL) @ GA Tech	76.7	11-21
Duke @ Virginia Tech	74.8	12-22
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati	73	18-27
E. Michigan @ Temple	73	17-27
Air Force @ TCU	72.6	16-26
Iowa State @ Kansas State	69.7	24-33
Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas St.	65.1	23-31
LA-Laf @ Troy	63	23-30
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt	61.9	10-15
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma	59.4	36-41
Brigham Young @ Utah	58.7	24-28
Connecticut @ South Florida	57.9	19-23
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State	52.4	20-22
Boston College @ WF	51.5	13-14
Indiana @ Purdue	48.5	19-21
Florida State @ Maryland	46.4	22-22
Buffalo @ Bowling Green	43.7	22-22
Colorado St. @ Wyoming	37.9	21-19
Northern Illinois @ Kent St.	37.8	26-24
Washington @ Washington St.	33.9	20-17
Mississippi @ LSU	32.5	27-23
Arkansas @ Mississippi State	31.6	19-15
Boise State @ Nevada	31.5	29-24
Akron @ Ohio	30.9	25-21
Oregon State @ Arizona	30.6	26-21
Fresno State @ San Jose State	26.7	26-19
W. Virginia @ Louisville	25.7	23-16
East Carolina @ UAB	23.2	26-19
UNLV @ San Diego State	21.5	26-18
Illinois @ Northwestern	19.5	27-18
Iowa @ Minn.	14.4	28-16
Clemson @ Virginia	10.6	22-10
Ball State @ C. Michigan	9.8	38-23

 

Ever wanted to be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that—and it's completely FREE for a limited time ($10.95 value).

From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling—it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school. Play for free today using the promo code BTBGD.

Promo code is valid for new Gridiron Dynasty users in first season only. Offer expires Dec. 31, 2008.

We hope that you enjoy our Beyond the Boxscore feature. As with all of our games, we are willing to listen to feedback and improve this page and content to make it as interesting and user-friendly as possible. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, please contact [e-mail]. Thanks!