Roger Federer: Easy Early Wins Don't Make Federer US Open Favorite

Now that Roger Federer has easily advanced past the first two rounds, the whispers that Federer might fully be "back" have begun. The players he has played don't read like a list of all-time greats and with so many solid players in the draw, that talk is a little premature.

Granted, he has looked very good. He is moving well and in his second-round win over Dudi Sela, his serve seemed to be as good as it had been since his days of dominance not so long ago. With a player as short as Sela, it's a little easier to dictate with your serve.

The competition will take a huge step up in the third round. There, he will face tall Croatian Marin Cilic. Unlike Sela, Cilic has the reach to get to those kick serves that worked so well for Fed Thursday.

Cilic has a great serve of his own and when things are clicking for him, he has some of the hardest groundstrokes on tour.

Let's save some judgment on Federer until after his match with Cilic.

Even if he gets past the big person, I'm not sold on Federer being a true contender. To be fair, that's not really his fault. It's more the fault of so many other players on tour being so good.

If he manages to get all the way to the quarterfinals, he will likely face either Mardy Fish, who is red hot right now or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who beat him at Wimbledon.

At this point, he is very clearly at least the third-best player in the world. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are both decidedly better and there are no fewer than half a dozen others that most would say are basically on par with the legend.

I'm certainly not going to count him out. No player with his pedigree should ever be discounted, but you have to be realistic about his odds.

Federer is a dangerous player, but he is not even within shouting distance of being the near sure things he once was.