2011 NFL Fantasy Football Total Point Projections from Whatifsports.com
We've all had this phone conversation before:
You: "Plug the square end of the cable into the computer."
Parent: "It won't fit."
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You: "Flip it over."
Parent: "The computer?"
You: "No. The square end."
Parent: "But it's a circle."
This 21st century version of "Who's On First?" highlights the daily battle between man and machine. Historically, man's only defensive maneuvers were the CTRL+ALT+DELETE scare tactic or a baseball bat to the hard drive.
In the latter case, neither side wins.
The Whatifsports.com simulation computer is immune to the propaganda and the slugger from Louisville. It's won many battles in the past, but this season I'm going to challenge its weekly projections in the feature Man vs Machine that will run on FOXSports.com's fantasy football page.
The cliche goes, "the pen is mightier than the sword" and now the words I ink will prove more powerful than any statistical spreadsheet.
Josh Freeman - (19.5 fantasy ppg / 4,107 pass yards / 25 TDs / 12 INTs)
The third-year quarterback out of Kansas State finished 2010 with 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions in 474 pass attempts. Freeman's ability to avoid the pick was second only to Tom Brady's four interceptions (based on QBs who passed more than 400 times).
If his pass attempts remain 400-plus, I believe Freeman throws at least four more interceptions and hits the double-digit mark in turnovers. With the Packers, Cowboys, Bears and Atlanta (twice) on the schedule, he will face tougher pass defenses in 2011. All those teams ranked in the top 10 in interceptions last year.
LeGarrette Blount (15.5 carries per game in 2010) went from Tennessee Titans castoff to Tampa's go-to back. With Cadillac Williams now in St. Louis, Blount emerges as a consistent option on offense. If he sees a bump in carries per game, in the 20 to 25 range, that means less opportunities for Freeman to find Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow and Arrelious Benn.
I think Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford will have better fantasy seasons.
Ahmad Bradshaw - (16.43 fantasy ppg / 1,407 rush yards / 13 TDs)
In order for Bradshaw to reach his simulated rushing total of 1,407 yards, he will need to average 88 rush yards per game. That's nearly 11 yards more per game than last season. To place those projections under the microscope further, Bradshaw rushed for 88 yards or better in less than half of the games in 2010.
Brandon Jacobs' (nine rush touchdowns in 2010) role in the Giants' offense will dictate whether or not Bradshaw will hit 13 rush touchdowns this season. After driving fantasy owners crazy in 2009, BJ found new fantasy life in a redefined role as a vulture. This is not good news for Bradshaw owners.
Give me Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall and MJD (among others below this sentence) well before Bradshaw.
Brandon Lloyd - (13.18 fantasy ppg / 79 recs. / 1,574 rec. yards / 9 TDs)
Let's play the law of averages game with Brandon Lloyd. Before 2010, his best receiving numbers were 733 receiving yards and five touchdowns with San Francisco in 2005. I think we need to take a step back with the simulation projections of 1,500-plus receiving yards.
First, while Kyle Orton may remain in Denver, the Broncos' No. 2 wide receiver is no longer Jabar Gaffney (875 rec. yards). Now, it's Eddie Royal, when healthy, and Eric Decker. Defensive backs will turn their attention to Lloyd, he of the 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns, and leave the second wideout in single coverage.
Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald are all ranked higher on my board.
Jimmy Graham - (6.9 fantasy ppg / 62 recs. / 775 rec. yards / 5 TDs)
The successor to Jeremy Shockey in New Orleans made a name for himself at the end of 2010. Graham scored four touchdowns in the last three weeks. Right now, the simulation projects him to average 48 receiving yards per game. I believe, even though Drew Brees is known to spread the wealth to his receivers, Graham could average closer to 60 yards per game.
When you combine David Thomas' 2010 stats to Graham's and Shockey's, Saints tight ends hauled in 983 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. Graham is locked in as the starter and should see more looks in the red zone and outperform the projected five touchdowns.

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