Saratoga Racetrack: Grade 1 Ballerina

I don't write this often, but it's true today: don't bet either Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the Grade One Ballerina.

Hour Glass is 12-1 and despite the John Velazquez and Pletcher combination, I don't like this horse at all. Her last win was over 13 months ago and despite a nice work at Monmouth on Aug. 21, I don't see this horse being much of a factor.

Tamarind Hall is probably going to be a great value and has a chance to win this seven-furlong stakes race. In her last two races, this Jeremiah Englehart-trained horse has been awesome, winning by at least five lengths in both. Tamarind Hall also has three wins at seven furlongs.  A must use.

Hilda's Passion is the "other" Todd Pletcher-trained horse, and while she has incredible early speed, I don't see her holding up late. In her last race, at Belmont, she faded late and lost by over 12 lengths.  With a lot of early speed in this race, the early fractions could be very fast.

Bronx City Girl was very good in her last race, when she finished second by a head in 1:08.3 at Monmouth.  Based off that race, she appears a great value at 15-1, but she comes with a huge warning sign: she hasn't won since May 2010.

Devil by Design is trained by Bill Mott but doesn't appear to be a threat unless she reverts back to her summer 2010 form.  With two wins over the main track at Saratoga, this five-year-old is a huge question mark.

Tar Heel Mom is my choice.  Just like in her last race, she appears to firing on all cylinders, and the 7-2 morning line is very fair.  Alex Solis rides this talented six-year-old mare again, and she will be the one trying to hold everyone off in the stretch.

Sassy Image really puzzles me.  She's won three in a row and appears capable of winning, but she's winless in both starts at Saratoga.  Despite that poor record, I cannot ignore the five-furlong work on Aug. 20 of 58.3.

Tar Heel Mom over Sassy Image, Tamarind Hall and Hilda's Passion in 1:09.