US Open Tennis 2011: Predicting Each and Every Match of the Men's Tournament
With the 2011 US Open set to start shortly, let's take a very thorough look at the men's side of the bracket.
Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are the top four seeds in the field, but that by no means allows us to rule out all the other players in the field. Almost anyone can win a match on any given day.
As a preview for the tournament, I've gone through and predicted every single match from the first round through the finals. In an effort not to make all readers fall asleep, I did wait to provide any analysis until I reached the semifinals.
When you look through the predictions, keep in mind that italics indicate a seeded player is involved in the match and bold font indicates that the match is a predicted upset based on the ATP World Rankings. Furthermore, the "No. X" in front of a players name is their world ranking and the parenthetical number, when it appears, is the player's seed at the US Open.
Enjoy looking through the predictions. No one is going to agree with every pick, especially as the tournament reaches its latter stages. Feel free to leave your own picks, but please remember to be respectful.
Men's First Round (Novak Djokovic's Quarter)
1 of 16No. 1 Novak Djokovic (1) over No. 199 Conor Niland
No. 70 Pere Riba over No. 75 Carlos Berlocq
No. 54 Potito Starace over No. 84 Michael Berrer
No. 39 Nikolay Davydenko over No. 33 Ivan Dodig (32)
No. 22 Alexandr Dolgopolov (22) over No. 104 Frederico Gil
No. 48 Kei Nishikori over No. 106 Flavio Cipolla
No. 93 Ivo Karlovic over No. 294 Fernando Gonzalez
No. 13 Richard Gasquet (13) over No. 41 Sergiy Stakhovsky
No. 9 Tomas Berdych (9) over No. 230 Romain Jouan
No. 38 Fabio Fognini over No. 110 Horacio Zeballos
No. 73 Albert Ramos over No. 66 Phillip Petzschner
No. 20 Janko Tipsarevic (20) over No. 149 Augustin Gensse
No. 32 Marcel Granollers (31) over No. 51 Xavier Malisse
No. 43 Albert Montanes over No. 61 Kukushkin
No. 46 Pablo Andujar over No. 103 Juan Carlos Ferrero
No. 7 Gael Monfils (7) over No. 52 Gigor Dimitrov
Men's First Round (Roger Federer's Quarter)
2 of 16No. 3 Roger Federer (3) over No. 56 Santiago Giraldo
No. 35 Thomaz Bellucci over No. 94 Dudi Sela
No. 62 Bernard Tomic over No. 208 Michael Yani
No. 27 Marin Cilic (27) over No. 67 Ryan Harrison
No. 23 Radek Stepanek (23) over No. 47 Philipp Kohlschreiber
No. 53 Andreas Seppi over No. 36 Juan Monaco
No. 477 Tommy Haas over No. 258 Jonathan Dasnieres De Veigy
No. 15 Viktor Troicki (15) over No. 117 Alejandro Falla
No. 11 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11) over No. 82 Yen-Hsun Lu
No. 74 Andreas Haider-Maurer over No. 210 Sergei Bubka
No. 100 Marsel Ilhan over No. 183 Frank Dancevic
No. 19 Fernando Verdasco (19) over No. 50 Jarkko Nieminen
No. 30 Michael Llodra (29) over No. 72 Victor Hanescu
No. 34 Kevin Anderson over No. 122 Go Soeda
No. 184 Malek Jaziri over No. 130 Thiemo de Bakker
No. 8 Mardy Fish (8) over No. 92 Tobias Kamke
Men's First Round (Andy Murray's Quarter)
3 of 16No. 6 Robin Soderling (6) over No. 614 Louk Sorensen
No. 525 Steve Johnson over No. 45 Alex Bogomolov Jr.
No. 307 Robby Ginepri over No. 90 Joao Souza
No. 28 John Isner (28) over No. 60 Marco Baghdatis
No. 18 Juan Martin Del Potro (18) over No. 86 Filippi Volandri
No. 76 Karol Beck over No. 101 Diego Jungueira
No. 37 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over No. 89 Daniel Gimeno-Traver
No. 12 Gilles Simon (12) over No. 114 Ricardo Mello
No. 14 Stanislas Wawrinka (14) over No. 105 Maximo Gonzalez
No. 85 Donald Young over No. 156 Lukas Lacko
No. 44 Dmitry Tursunov over No. 102 Steve Darcis
No. 24 Juan Ignacio Chela (24) over No. 148 Marinko Matosevic
No. 25 Feliciano Lopez (25) over No. 126 Tatsuma Ito
No. 65 Lukas Rosol over No. 145 Vasek Pospisil
No. 42 Robin Haase over No. 80 Rui Machado
No. 4 Andy Murray (4) over No. 64 Somdev Devvarman
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Men's First Round (Rafael Nadal's Quarter)
4 of 16No. 5 David Ferrer (5) over No. 79 Igor Andreev
No. 63 James Blake over No. 160 Jesse Huta Galung
No. 78 Olivier Rochus over No. 542 Jean-Rene Lisnard
No. 26 Florian Mayer (26) over No. 59 Adrian Mannarino
No. 21 Andy Roddick (21) over No. 95 Michael Russell
No. 592 Jack Sock over No. 96 Marc Gicquel
No. 68 Denis Istomin over No. 71 Ryan Sweeting
No. 10 Nicolas Almagro (10) over No. 113 Jullien Benneteau
No. 55 Ernests Gulbis over No. 16 Mikhail Youzhny (16)
No. 69 Giles Muller over No. 107 Edouard Roger-Vasselin
No. 58 Igor Kunitsyn over No. 87 Matthias Bachinger
No. 17 Jurgen Melzer (17) over No. 83 Eric Prodon
No. 31 Ivan Ljubicic (30) over No. 81 Blaz Kavcic
No. 116 Bobby Reynolds over No. 77 David Nalbandian
No. 98 Nicolas Mahut over No. 182 Robert Farah
No. 2 Rafael Nadal (2) over No. 97 Andrey Golubev
Men's Second Round (Novak Djokovic's Quarter)
5 of 16No. 1 Novak Djokovic (1) over No. 70 Pere Riba
No. 39 Nikolay Davydenko over No. 54 Potito Starace
No. 22 Alexandr Dolgopolov (22) over No. 48 Kei Nishikori
No. 13 Richard Gasquet (13) over No. 93 Ivo Karlovic
No. 9 Tomas Berdych (9) over No. 38 Fabio Fognini
No. 20 Janko Tipsarevic (20) over No. 73 Albert Ramos
No. 43 Albert Montanes over No. 32 Marcel Granollers
No. 7 Gael Monfils (7) over No. 46 Pablo Andujar
Men's Second Round (Roger Federer's Quarter)
6 of 16No. 3 Roger Federer (3) over No. 35 Thomaz Bellucci
No. 27 Marin Cilic (27) over No. 62 Bernard Tomic
No. 23 Radek Stepanek (23) over No. 53 Andreas Seppi
No. 15 Viktor Troicki (15) over No. 477 Tommy Haas
No. 11 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11) over No. 74 Andreas Haider-Maurer
No. 19 Fernando Verdasco (19) over No. 100 Marsel Ilhan
No. 34 Kevin Anderson over No. 30 Michael Llodra (29)
No. 8 Mardy Fish (8) over No. 184 Malek Jaziri
Men's Second Round (Andy Murray's Quarter)
7 of 16No. 6 Robin Soderling (6) over No. 525 Steve Johnson
No. 28 John Isner (28) over No. 307 Robby Ginepri
No. 18 Juan Martin Del Potro (18) over No. 76 Karol Beck
No. 12 Gilles Simon (12) over No. 37 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
No. 14 Stanislas Wawrinka (14) over No. 85 Donald Young
No. 44 Dmitry Tursunov over No. 24 Juan Ignacio Chela
No. 25 Feliciano Lopez (25) over No. 65 Lukas Rosol
No. 4 Andy Murray (4) over No. 42 Robin Haase
Men's Second Round (Rafael Nadal's Quarter)
8 of 16No. 5 David Ferrer (5) over No. 63 James Blake
No. 26 Florian Mayer (25) over No. 78 Olivier Rochus
No. 21 Andy Roddick (21) over No. 592 Jack Sock
No. 10 Nicolas Almagro (10) over Denis Istomin
No. 55 Ernests Gulbis over No. 69 Giles Muller
No. 17 Jurgen Melzer (17) over No. 58 Igor Kunitsyn
No. 31 Ivan Ljubicic (30) over No. 116 Bobby Reynolds
No. 2 Rafael Nadal (2) over No. 98 Nicolas Mahut
Men's Third Round (Novak Djokovic's Quarter)
9 of 16No. 1 Novak Djokovic (1) over No. 39 Nikolay Davydenko
No. 13 Ricahrd Gasquet (13) over No. 22 Alexandr Dolgopolov (22)
No. 20 Janko Tipsarevic (20) over No. 9 Tomas Berdych (9)
No. 7 Gael Monfils (7) over No. 43 Albert Montanes
Men's Third Round (Roger Federer's Quarter)
10 of 16No. 3 Roger Federer (3) over No. 27 Marin Cilic (27)
No. 15 Viktor Troicki (15) over No. 23 Radek Stepanek (23)
No. 19 Fernando Verdasco (19) over No. 11 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11)
No. 8 Mardy Fish (8) over No. 34 Kevin Anderson
Men's Third Round (Andy Murray's Quarter)
11 of 16No. 6 Robin Soderling (6) over John Isner (28)
No. 18 Juan Martin Del Potro (18) over No. 12 Gilles Simon (12)
No. 14 Stanislas Wawrinka (14) over No. 44 Dmitry Tursunov
No. 4 Andy Murray (4) over No. 25 Feliciano Lopez (25)
Men's Third Round (Rafael Nadal's Quarter)
12 of 16No. 5 David Ferrer (5) over No. 26 Florian Mayer (25)
No. 10 Nicolas Almagro (10) over No. 21 Andy Roddick (21)
No. 55 Ernests Gulbis over No. 17 Jurgen Melzer (17)
No. 2 Rafael Nadal (2) over No. 31 Ivan Ljubicic (30)
Men's Fourth Round
13 of 16No. 1 Novak Djokovic (1) over No. 13 Richard Gasquet (13)
No. 20 Janko Tipsarevic (20) over No. 7 Gael Monfils (7)
No. 3 Roger Federer (3) over No. 15 Viktor Troicki (15)
No. 8 Mardy Fish (8) over No. 19 Fernando Verdasco (19)
No. 6 Robin Soderling (6) over No. 18 Juan Martin Del Potro (18)
No. 4 Andy Murray (4) over No. 14 Stanislas Wawrinka (14)
No. 5 David Ferrer (5) over No. 10 Nicolas Almagro (10)
No. 2 Rafael Nadal (2) over No. 55 Ernests Gulbis
Men's Quarterfinals
14 of 16No. 1 Novak Djokovic (1) over No. 20 Janko Tipsarevic (20)
It's pretty hard to bet against Novak Djokovic in the midst of his magical season. While it's not impossible for the Djoker to lose, it won't be against an opponent like Janko Tipsarevic.
No. 8 Mardy Fish (8) over No. 3 Roger Federer (3)
As sacrilegious as picking Roger Federer to lose in the quarterfinals may be, he's going to if he has the misfortune of facing a red-hot Mardy Fish. After all, the now 30-year-old Swiss Maestro has fallen to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga multiple times and Tomas Berdych once since his inspiring French Open run.
No. 4 Andy Murray (4) over No. 6 Robin Soderling (6)
After his big victory against Novak Djokovic, albeit one in which the world No. 1 had to retire with a shoulder injury, Andy Murray is going to be feeling it at Flushing Meadows. The big-hitting Robin Soderling will give him a tough match, but Murray will get one step closer to his first Grand Slam victory.
No. 2 Rafael Nadal over No. 5 David Ferrer (5)
After facing Andrey Golubev, Nicolas Mahut, Ivan Ljubicic and Ernests Gulbis to this point, Rafael Nadal will face his first truly tough test in the form of world No. 5 David Ferrer. The easy run to the quarterfinals will allow Nadal both to not let his body break down and to regain his top-tier form. I'm calling straight sets here.
Men's Semifinal
15 of 16No. 1 Novak Djokovic (1) over No. 8 Mardy Fish (8)
In an inspired display of tennis, Novak Djokovic will finally knock the last remaining American out of the 2011 US Open. Fish will have to be satisfied with a semifinal appearance, as he doesn't quite have the complete game to hang with Djokovic for five sets.
No. 2 Rafael Nadal (2) over No. 4 Andy Murray (4)
Rafael Nadal has made his living by winning the big matches, especially in Grand Slam events. Andy Murray on the other hand has earned a reputation for flopping in the most crucial tournaments. You tell me which you'd feel more confident betting on here.
Men's Final
16 of 16No. 2 Rafael Nadal over No. 1 Novak Djokovic
Is this a bold pick? Yes, it absolutely is. I won't deny that whatsoever.
But it will also prove to be the right one.
Novak Djokovic is enjoying a season for the ages, one in which he's only lost twice. The first time was to Roger Federer in the semifinals of the French Open, but the second defeat came in his last match. At the finals of the Western & Southern Open, the Djoker had to retire because of a shoulder injury, choosing to do so when he was already down one set and 3-0 in the second.
The injury was clearly affecting him, holding his serve to only double-digits on the radar gun. Djokovic did say afterward, though, that "I've played so many matches this year. I've been winning a lot and reaching the final stages of each event. Considering the busy schedule, it's kind of normal to expect that at some stage you are exhausted, but I'm confident that I can recover and be ready for the US Open."
How much of that is false bravado and how much is truthfulness will soon be revealed at Flushing Meadows. One thing is for sure, though: if Djokovic isn't in tip-top shape, the other elite players and grueling conditions of the US Open will surely wear him down.
Moving on to Rafael Nadal, though, he isn't exactly in top form at the moment. After losses to Mardy Fish and Ivan Dodig in the past two tournaments he has entered, Rafa needs to jump start his engine and avoid the pesky injury imp if he wants to add an 11th Grand Slam title to his collection.
Remember though that Nadal is a man who always seems to play best in the biggest events. That, coupled with the fact that his draw isn't exactly tough, should allow him to regain the form he is so desperately seeking.
This would undoubtedly be an epic final, but it would be one in which I'd expect the world No. 2 to topple the top overall player.
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Adam Fromal is a syndicated writer and Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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